* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP102017 07/26/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 79 77 73 71 67 64 63 66 68 62 58 53 48 47 47 48 V (KT) LAND 80 79 77 73 71 67 64 63 66 68 62 58 53 48 47 47 48 V (KT) LGEM 80 80 78 74 70 64 61 61 64 64 60 54 46 39 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 16 15 11 11 12 14 11 14 15 18 7 3 4 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 2 5 3 -3 -2 -5 -2 0 1 -2 1 -1 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 171 173 165 150 130 89 67 68 71 76 79 167 199 248 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.8 26.4 24.3 22.8 22.9 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 132 131 131 131 130 130 130 131 128 106 90 91 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -51.5 -51.9 -51.2 -51.6 -50.9 -51.5 -50.7 -51.4 -51.0 -51.4 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 56 59 58 59 61 64 67 68 68 67 57 53 49 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 19 18 19 19 18 18 20 22 20 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 3 22 39 58 86 119 113 113 95 106 81 64 67 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -5 1 6 14 17 -13 65 65 62 66 19 0 -9 -22 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 4 6 12 6 -4 3 -2 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1305 1360 1416 1477 1538 1606 1622 1591 1522 1421 1334 1271 1253 1385 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.0 15.8 15.6 15.4 15.1 14.9 14.9 15.2 16.0 17.3 19.0 21.0 23.0 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.6 121.2 121.7 122.3 122.8 123.5 123.7 123.6 123.5 123.4 123.9 125.1 126.3 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 2 1 3 6 8 10 11 11 10 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 5 4 3 5 6 6 5 3 3 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -10. -14. -16. -18. -21. -24. -28. -30. -32. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 2. 5. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -7. -9. -13. -16. -17. -14. -12. -18. -22. -27. -32. -33. -33. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 16.0 120.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 IRWIN 07/26/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.21 1.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.23 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.21 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 541.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.25 -1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.64 3.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.62 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.02 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.63 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.1% 19.9% 16.0% 12.2% 10.4% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 2.6% 1.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.9% 7.6% 5.8% 4.5% 3.6% 3.9% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 IRWIN 07/26/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##