* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092017 07/26/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 90 91 91 90 86 87 87 85 82 76 71 65 55 49 42 34 V (KT) LAND 90 90 91 91 90 86 87 87 85 82 76 71 65 55 49 42 34 V (KT) LGEM 90 90 90 89 87 84 80 75 71 66 60 56 51 45 39 33 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 17 16 15 16 10 9 12 8 2 1 6 2 4 7 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 2 1 -1 -1 -1 -3 -3 -1 0 -2 -2 -3 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 353 355 354 358 350 349 348 334 318 315 16 128 116 34 157 191 205 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 28.7 28.3 28.1 27.2 26.8 26.4 26.5 26.0 25.3 24.5 24.5 23.2 22.8 22.5 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 152 148 145 136 131 127 128 123 116 107 108 95 89 85 86 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -51.3 -51.8 -51.3 -51.8 -51.0 -51.3 -50.6 -51.2 -51.0 -51.4 -51.6 -52.1 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.0 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 8 7 6 5 3 2 2 1 1 0 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 67 70 72 74 74 74 75 71 69 64 62 54 47 43 40 38 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 23 25 25 25 30 30 30 30 29 27 25 22 19 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -12 -4 6 14 42 59 66 101 105 124 115 114 100 115 71 60 200 MB DIV 34 11 12 52 53 54 49 59 52 56 0 15 2 -18 -14 13 0 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -7 -6 -5 -9 -6 -6 -6 -11 -2 -5 2 0 1 2 2 LAND (KM) 600 676 739 744 765 845 924 1006 1108 1213 1312 1420 1543 1643 1785 1599 1631 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.2 16.4 16.7 16.9 17.5 18.1 18.6 19.2 19.7 20.1 20.5 21.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.3 110.4 111.5 112.6 113.6 115.7 117.6 119.4 121.2 123.0 124.8 126.5 128.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 10 12 7 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 21 19 14 10 8 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -7. -12. -17. -21. -25. -28. -31. -34. -38. -43. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -6. -4. -2. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 8. 11. 12. 12. 9. 7. 4. -0. -2. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 0. -4. -3. -3. -5. -8. -14. -19. -25. -35. -41. -48. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 15.9 109.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 HILARY 07/26/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.31 2.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 17.2 to 1.6 0.14 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.36 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 295.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.55 -3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.48 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.86 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.13 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.57 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.4% 16.5% 14.8% 11.5% 8.9% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 5.5% 1.5% 0.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.9% 7.9% 5.5% 4.2% 3.2% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 HILARY 07/26/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##