* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072017 07/25/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 31 29 28 25 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 33 31 29 28 25 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 33 31 29 27 24 22 20 18 17 17 17 17 17 18 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 10 12 15 17 25 32 26 12 11 11 10 11 11 3 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -3 -1 -4 -9 -5 3 7 5 9 7 4 8 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 238 256 273 274 286 303 310 322 350 100 130 109 131 156 175 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.2 25.9 25.4 25.7 26.2 26.3 26.3 26.6 26.8 27.3 27.5 28.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 128 127 124 121 116 119 124 125 125 129 131 135 139 146 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -53.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 48 47 45 42 38 35 31 31 30 31 30 30 28 31 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 10 9 9 9 9 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -8 0 4 -1 1 15 19 33 27 29 26 24 26 18 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 18 16 -4 -13 -1 -14 -40 -44 -43 -23 -18 -51 -23 0 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1998 1917 1837 1759 1681 1518 1365 1220 1082 980 873 775 704 612 657 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.7 16.1 16.5 16.9 17.2 17.1 16.8 16.4 16.0 15.5 15.0 14.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 136.5 137.2 137.8 138.5 139.1 140.6 142.1 143.6 145.1 146.3 147.7 149.2 150.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 6 10 15 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 3 5 7 17 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 17. 16. 16. 17. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -5. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -7. -10. -12. -18. -21. -23. -23. -21. -18. -17. -12. -12. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.2 136.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 GREG 07/25/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.58 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.31 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 258.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.51 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.9 56.6 to 0.0 0.44 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 12.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 4.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 GREG 07/25/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##