* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP102017 07/25/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 66 65 65 63 62 60 61 62 62 56 51 47 46 47 49 V (KT) LAND 60 63 66 65 65 63 62 60 61 62 62 56 51 47 46 47 49 V (KT) LGEM 60 64 65 65 64 59 55 52 53 55 56 54 50 46 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 15 15 15 18 14 14 10 20 15 18 18 16 19 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 3 5 4 1 0 -3 -3 -1 -3 -1 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 161 159 164 164 158 146 134 85 75 74 68 76 73 117 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.2 26.8 26.2 24.7 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 140 140 141 141 137 135 134 134 134 131 125 110 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -51.5 -51.9 -51.1 -51.3 -50.7 -51.0 -50.5 -51.1 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 60 61 60 59 63 63 66 69 70 70 65 60 51 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 19 18 18 19 20 18 19 20 21 18 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -30 -20 -12 -2 35 74 120 141 132 145 167 189 161 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -14 -9 -14 -7 0 9 20 11 46 51 82 47 23 -6 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 2 2 3 2 1 0 2 4 9 8 4 5 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1199 1225 1252 1288 1323 1405 1483 1558 1587 1561 1529 1509 1471 1568 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.2 15.0 14.8 14.5 14.5 15.0 15.8 17.0 18.2 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.0 118.4 118.8 119.3 119.8 120.8 121.7 122.4 122.8 123.0 123.4 124.2 124.9 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 3 2 3 6 7 9 12 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 18 16 15 15 14 10 9 8 6 6 3 1 0 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 1. 3. 5. 5. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. -0. 1. 2. 2. -4. -9. -13. -14. -13. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 15.2 118.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 IRWIN 07/25/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.47 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.16 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.12 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 350.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.48 -3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 5.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.75 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.15 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.52 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.1% 25.5% 20.1% 15.6% 12.9% 15.1% 10.9% 8.6% Logistic: 5.0% 8.7% 3.0% 2.4% 1.0% 2.4% 2.3% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 6.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.8% 13.5% 7.8% 6.0% 4.7% 5.9% 4.4% 3.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 IRWIN 07/25/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##