* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP102017 07/24/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 60 62 62 59 59 61 61 59 61 62 59 54 50 51 52 V (KT) LAND 55 58 60 62 62 59 59 61 61 59 61 62 59 54 50 51 52 V (KT) LGEM 55 58 60 61 60 58 55 54 55 55 57 57 54 51 46 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 4 7 10 10 14 18 17 18 14 17 13 12 17 13 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 4 3 -5 -5 -3 0 0 -2 -3 -2 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 256 192 180 179 153 133 115 102 72 68 62 61 63 64 57 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.5 26.7 24.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 139 139 140 142 139 138 134 133 134 132 127 130 109 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -51.9 -51.7 -51.8 -51.4 -51.3 -51.0 -51.3 -50.9 -50.7 -50.7 -50.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 62 61 61 59 62 62 64 64 68 66 67 66 58 50 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 19 21 21 20 20 22 23 22 24 26 26 25 23 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -47 -39 -28 -21 -14 8 55 107 129 140 137 153 156 97 112 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -21 -7 0 -18 0 19 14 18 27 36 61 54 15 -21 -27 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 3 2 0 1 2 5 5 5 0 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1187 1208 1229 1256 1281 1351 1419 1499 1533 1538 1521 1488 1463 1622 1577 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.1 15.1 15.2 15.2 15.1 15.0 14.7 14.8 15.1 15.7 16.7 17.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.6 118.0 118.3 118.7 119.1 120.1 121.0 121.8 122.4 122.8 123.2 123.7 124.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 4 4 5 4 3 3 3 5 6 6 9 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 19 17 17 16 15 13 10 8 6 6 4 2 4 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 4. 6. 4. 7. 9. 8. 6. 4. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 7. 4. 4. 6. 6. 4. 6. 7. 4. -1. -5. -4. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.0 117.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 IRWIN 07/24/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.52 5.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.68 5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.12 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 306.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.53 -4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 6.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.70 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.16 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.0 to -2.0 0.27 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.1% 29.8% 28.0% 21.8% 15.2% 20.0% 13.5% 9.6% Logistic: 12.5% 26.3% 13.4% 10.7% 3.5% 9.0% 3.7% 2.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 10.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 10.0% 22.3% 14.0% 10.9% 6.4% 10.0% 5.8% 3.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 IRWIN 07/24/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##