* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072017 07/24/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 39 37 34 30 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 39 37 34 30 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 40 39 38 37 34 31 27 23 21 19 19 19 19 19 18 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 8 12 10 13 21 24 33 30 12 6 20 17 11 12 8 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -3 -6 -4 -2 -3 0 -7 -7 2 9 0 0 3 3 2 N/A SHEAR DIR 237 168 175 203 248 279 296 297 298 306 159 148 166 163 174 206 N/A SST (C) 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.5 26.6 25.9 25.9 26.7 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.3 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 131 129 127 128 129 121 121 130 130 131 132 133 134 135 137 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 5 6 6 6 6 7 N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 50 48 47 44 43 37 35 28 26 24 22 23 29 31 36 N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 11 9 8 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -7 -5 -4 -6 4 3 24 22 33 31 34 28 27 21 11 N/A 200 MB DIV 22 4 2 5 21 -3 1 -10 -5 -42 -38 -40 -15 -19 -25 -15 N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 1 2 1 0 0 0 -2 -1 -2 0 -1 0 0 N/A LAND (KM) 2282 2193 2105 2020 1936 1775 1598 1433 1274 1135 1038 958 899 733 789 787 N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.8 15.1 15.5 15.9 16.5 16.9 16.9 16.7 16.3 15.8 15.3 14.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x N/A LONG(DEG W) 134.0 134.8 135.5 136.2 136.9 138.3 139.9 141.5 143.1 144.6 145.8 146.9 147.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 9 8 8 9 N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 3 2 1 3 4 0 0 3 4 4 5 5 4 6 12 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. 13. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -8. -10. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -12. -11. -10. -8. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -15. -22. -25. -25. -25. -24. -22. -20. -20. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.4 134.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 GREG 07/24/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.57 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.51 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 297.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.81 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.52 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.3% 17.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 2.0% 1.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 6.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 GREG 07/24/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##