* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092017 07/24/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 74 82 89 95 103 105 102 100 95 90 89 85 78 72 64 56 V (KT) LAND 65 74 82 89 95 103 105 102 100 95 90 89 85 78 72 64 56 V (KT) LGEM 65 74 82 88 95 105 109 106 99 90 82 76 70 62 53 45 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 1 4 6 3 9 11 15 17 15 13 9 6 8 7 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 -3 -4 -2 0 -1 0 -3 0 -2 -1 1 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 161 76 109 120 103 351 16 359 347 341 335 303 341 303 290 282 290 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.9 29.4 29.6 29.2 28.9 28.5 27.9 27.1 26.6 26.6 26.3 25.9 24.0 22.9 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 153 158 161 157 154 149 143 135 129 129 125 122 103 90 84 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -51.8 -51.6 -51.6 -51.8 -51.4 -51.5 -51.1 -50.9 -50.7 -50.7 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 77 77 77 77 77 76 75 78 78 76 75 72 71 70 64 64 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 18 19 19 20 23 25 28 29 30 33 34 31 29 25 21 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -21 -17 -12 -16 -14 -8 -4 12 40 55 89 122 134 142 128 109 200 MB DIV 29 12 32 57 61 24 21 56 39 60 49 82 47 23 7 -10 -11 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 0 0 -1 -5 -5 -6 -4 -9 -1 -4 -5 -6 -5 -4 LAND (KM) 472 453 449 464 486 523 627 691 722 806 886 976 1106 1159 1087 893 929 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.2 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.8 16.5 17.0 17.6 18.1 18.6 19.1 19.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.5 104.2 104.9 105.7 106.5 108.2 110.1 112.1 114.0 115.8 117.7 119.5 121.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 6 8 10 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 31 21 17 20 25 26 17 12 7 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 49.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -5. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 8. 12. 18. 21. 21. 24. 22. 17. 14. 9. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 12. 7. 2. -2. -4. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 9. 17. 24. 30. 38. 40. 37. 35. 30. 25. 24. 20. 13. 7. -1. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 13.8 103.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 HILARY 07/24/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.57 11.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.67 13.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.89 14.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.39 6.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 73.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.82 -11.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.88 12.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.78 8.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.22 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 4.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.38 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 64% is 10.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 65% is 5.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 62% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 58% is 9.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 10.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 43% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 64.5% 65.4% 61.7% 58.3% 43.0% 42.6% 19.9% 11.3% Logistic: 49.5% 68.2% 52.1% 38.4% 22.2% 25.5% 12.5% 6.1% Bayesian: 26.8% 82.3% 61.4% 46.2% 54.7% 70.3% 23.6% 0.1% Consensus: 46.9% 72.0% 58.4% 47.6% 40.0% 46.1% 18.7% 5.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 HILARY 07/24/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##