* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP102017 07/24/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 57 61 66 70 72 75 74 76 75 74 72 70 67 64 V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 57 61 66 70 72 75 74 76 75 74 72 70 67 64 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 52 55 58 62 64 65 67 69 72 72 71 69 65 60 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 8 3 3 10 8 6 12 14 18 19 16 8 12 9 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -5 -3 -2 -1 1 -1 -2 -5 -3 -4 0 -6 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 337 326 334 6 123 145 133 64 76 54 47 47 47 46 91 82 62 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.0 25.9 26.1 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 145 142 141 141 142 144 143 140 137 136 134 134 138 135 119 125 119 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -52.5 -52.3 -51.6 -51.6 -51.2 -51.5 -50.9 -51.7 -51.0 -51.0 -50.5 -51.0 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 4 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 67 66 66 65 65 66 66 65 66 66 68 68 67 62 64 58 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 17 18 19 22 23 23 24 24 27 28 29 29 29 28 26 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -38 -41 -42 -42 -35 -19 -1 24 45 42 39 29 60 149 106 96 200 MB DIV 20 33 17 -4 8 -14 13 -8 6 -1 15 17 30 10 5 -1 -20 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 LAND (KM) 1154 1189 1225 1258 1291 1367 1446 1535 1623 1689 1718 1702 1685 1640 1408 1634 1758 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 14.9 14.8 14.8 14.7 14.6 14.4 14.2 13.9 13.7 13.7 13.9 14.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.0 117.5 117.9 118.3 118.7 119.6 120.6 121.7 122.6 123.3 123.7 123.7 123.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 2 1 1 10 12 3 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 26 24 21 19 18 18 18 13 13 16 17 13 12 8 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. 16. 15. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 12. 15. 15. 16. 14. 13. 10. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 21. 25. 27. 30. 29. 31. 30. 29. 27. 25. 22. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.9 117.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 IRWIN 07/24/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.64 6.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.67 5.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.26 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 193.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.67 -4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 4.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.60 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.20 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.40 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.4% 24.6% 24.5% 20.3% 14.2% 20.3% 16.8% 12.5% Logistic: 5.2% 30.1% 14.8% 10.3% 7.9% 8.6% 6.6% 7.1% Bayesian: 0.6% 10.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.7% 2.6% 4.0% 0.1% Consensus: 6.7% 21.6% 13.3% 10.3% 7.6% 10.5% 9.2% 6.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 IRWIN 07/24/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##