* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP102017 07/23/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 42 43 46 47 48 49 51 54 59 61 62 60 56 54 V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 42 43 46 47 48 49 51 54 59 61 62 60 56 54 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 43 43 43 43 42 41 39 39 40 44 48 51 49 46 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 13 11 5 12 15 12 8 6 8 9 15 13 17 12 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -5 -4 -3 -4 -2 0 -3 -1 -2 0 -3 -2 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 350 339 333 343 1 171 176 172 140 144 81 105 55 42 42 50 345 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.3 26.2 25.3 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 143 141 141 142 142 140 137 136 135 136 137 139 127 117 102 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -52.7 -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -51.6 -50.9 -50.9 -50.8 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 67 67 66 65 65 65 65 65 61 63 61 63 59 60 74 68 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 13 13 14 14 15 15 15 16 18 19 19 17 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -45 -42 -48 -50 -36 -30 -3 11 33 45 56 66 153 91 76 72 200 MB DIV 15 17 14 -3 -18 -5 -15 0 2 41 51 72 44 36 25 17 18 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 2 1 0 -1 0 -2 0 0 -1 6 LAND (KM) 1109 1141 1174 1198 1223 1291 1357 1443 1542 1654 1746 1816 1887 1670 1143 1097 1234 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 14.9 14.9 15.0 15.0 14.9 14.9 14.8 14.6 14.3 14.1 14.0 13.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.3 116.8 117.3 117.7 118.1 118.9 119.9 121.1 122.3 123.5 124.5 125.3 126.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 4 4 4 16 14 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 25 26 25 23 21 18 17 13 9 10 13 15 17 9 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 19. 20. 20. 20. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 14. 19. 21. 22. 20. 16. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.9 116.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 IRWIN 07/23/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.70 5.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.38 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.20 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 174.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.70 -4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.32 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.23 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.38 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.1% 19.7% 15.1% 11.2% 0.0% 14.6% 11.8% 11.0% Logistic: 1.3% 8.0% 2.8% 1.5% 1.3% 2.2% 2.9% 3.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% Consensus: 3.5% 9.6% 6.0% 4.2% 0.4% 5.7% 5.1% 4.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 IRWIN 07/23/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##