* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072017 07/23/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 41 40 38 34 29 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 41 40 38 34 29 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 45 44 42 41 38 33 29 26 22 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 9 10 9 8 13 16 23 29 30 27 16 4 5 10 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 0 1 1 0 -3 -1 -3 -6 -2 0 5 5 3 1 SHEAR DIR 282 295 312 293 287 214 241 282 300 306 303 305 286 201 152 109 106 SST (C) 27.5 27.2 26.6 26.6 27.0 27.2 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.5 26.5 26.9 26.0 27.1 27.7 27.7 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 130 130 134 135 129 129 129 127 127 132 122 133 138 138 136 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.6 -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 58 56 57 56 53 50 47 45 41 37 33 28 27 31 34 31 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 15 14 14 13 11 9 7 6 5 4 4 4 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 26 18 16 16 4 6 6 5 -2 -5 1 -6 16 12 23 16 21 200 MB DIV 1 -22 -9 10 20 27 0 11 -12 -12 -26 -46 -29 -16 -3 -1 -24 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -3 -3 -4 0 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 2045 2131 2221 2303 2385 2189 2032 1886 1750 1614 1462 1308 1141 1149 1212 1163 1117 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.4 14.4 14.7 15.1 15.5 15.9 16.3 16.6 16.6 16.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 128.4 129.6 130.8 131.9 133.0 134.8 136.2 137.5 138.7 139.9 141.3 142.8 144.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 10 8 7 6 6 7 7 7 6 5 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 8 4 1 1 3 5 4 4 4 2 2 5 0 5 10 11 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -3. -6. -8. -9. -7. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -5. -9. -13. -15. -16. -16. -16. -14. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -11. -16. -21. -26. -30. -33. -33. -30. -25. -23. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.3 128.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 GREG 07/23/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.56 3.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.57 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.17 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 273.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.57 -2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.33 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.69 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.41 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.6% 20.0% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 13.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 5.6% 2.5% 0.9% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 8.6% 4.9% 0.3% 0.2% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 GREG 07/23/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##