* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092017 07/23/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 38 41 49 62 75 88 94 98 99 101 98 93 89 83 77 V (KT) LAND 30 33 38 41 49 62 75 88 94 98 99 101 98 93 89 83 77 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 35 38 45 55 68 83 94 97 95 90 84 76 67 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 1 2 0 4 3 6 7 7 7 11 12 13 13 8 12 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 0 0 -2 -1 -6 -3 0 -1 -1 -3 -4 -2 0 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 76 2 288 216 74 94 81 56 57 30 22 9 13 343 335 329 259 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 28.9 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.2 27.8 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.6 25.8 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 156 157 153 148 150 150 148 146 142 135 132 130 129 121 102 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -52.8 -52.2 -52.7 -52.0 -52.1 -51.3 -51.4 -50.7 -50.9 -50.3 -50.8 -50.1 -50.6 -50.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.8 1.2 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 71 73 75 76 78 80 78 78 76 75 74 75 75 77 76 75 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 18 17 19 21 21 25 27 29 32 35 36 36 36 33 30 850 MB ENV VOR 21 18 3 -2 -6 -11 -3 -16 1 8 12 29 54 68 75 53 64 200 MB DIV 53 52 55 64 106 99 112 66 97 72 69 54 54 58 49 28 53 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 0 -4 -2 -6 -7 -7 -4 -8 1 LAND (KM) 564 554 549 541 533 519 535 577 666 738 751 801 863 1002 1006 899 896 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.7 12.1 12.6 13.0 13.7 14.4 15.1 15.8 16.5 17.1 17.6 18.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.7 100.6 101.5 102.3 103.2 104.7 106.3 108.1 110.0 111.9 113.7 115.2 116.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 15 20 31 46 44 24 21 26 17 11 6 3 2 2 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 40.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 11. 17. 23. 26. 28. 30. 31. 32. 32. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 13. 16. 20. 23. 25. 25. 23. 20. 16. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 9. 5. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 11. 19. 32. 45. 58. 64. 68. 69. 71. 68. 63. 59. 53. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.2 99.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 NINE 07/23/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.91 9.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.96 8.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.55 4.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 26.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.88 -6.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.54 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.31 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.62 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 2.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 33% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 46% is 7.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 53% is 11.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.3% 36.7% 27.6% 21.2% 0.0% 32.8% 45.8% 52.7% Logistic: 15.1% 68.8% 50.5% 34.1% 9.3% 45.9% 39.5% 36.5% Bayesian: 0.6% 23.8% 9.7% 2.8% 2.0% 12.9% 19.5% 19.8% Consensus: 9.6% 43.1% 29.3% 19.4% 3.8% 30.5% 34.9% 36.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 NINE 07/23/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##