* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN EP102017 07/22/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 34 37 42 47 50 50 50 52 55 56 56 56 58 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 34 37 42 47 50 50 50 52 55 56 56 56 58 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 33 34 34 34 34 33 32 31 30 30 29 29 29 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 13 12 5 6 2 9 11 13 11 9 12 14 11 15 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -1 0 -6 0 -2 -1 0 -3 0 -1 0 -1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 344 336 343 2 14 302 343 176 179 171 153 140 86 100 58 53 96 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 141 142 143 142 141 143 146 143 139 138 135 136 139 139 134 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -52.4 -52.1 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -51.5 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 4 3 700-500 MB RH 68 68 68 70 69 70 68 68 64 63 62 65 63 61 59 64 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 11 11 12 13 13 13 14 13 13 13 14 14 12 11 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -48 -51 -54 -46 -47 -49 -34 -29 -11 -1 12 19 41 28 119 108 200 MB DIV 10 5 21 37 42 7 -9 10 -24 -20 -19 5 -11 28 34 1 21 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 3 2 3 1 1 0 0 -3 0 2 LAND (KM) 1003 1021 1042 1064 1089 1154 1228 1314 1412 1506 1616 1736 1850 1886 1808 1547 1390 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.5 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.5 14.3 13.9 13.4 12.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.2 113.8 114.4 115.0 115.5 116.6 117.7 118.9 120.2 121.4 122.5 123.6 124.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 4 2 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 14 17 19 22 21 18 21 17 13 22 25 20 18 9 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 26. 28. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 1. -1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 12. 17. 20. 20. 20. 22. 25. 26. 26. 27. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.4 113.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 TEN 07/22/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.78 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.42 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.30 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 120.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.76 -4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.23 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.13 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.87 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.9% 18.8% 13.8% 10.0% 0.0% 14.2% 13.6% 13.0% Logistic: 0.6% 2.6% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 1.6% 7.2% 12.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% Consensus: 2.9% 7.4% 5.0% 3.5% 0.1% 5.3% 7.0% 8.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 TEN 07/22/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##