* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072017 07/22/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 42 41 41 39 40 38 37 33 30 29 27 24 23 23 23 V (KT) LAND 45 44 42 41 41 39 40 38 37 33 30 29 27 24 23 23 23 V (KT) LGEM 45 44 44 42 41 38 35 33 31 29 26 24 22 20 18 16 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 10 7 2 2 5 2 5 13 17 17 23 25 21 18 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 1 0 -3 1 0 2 3 0 -3 0 -3 -1 0 7 8 SHEAR DIR 233 224 218 233 258 291 303 221 232 259 289 289 288 291 317 318 298 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.4 27.6 27.0 27.0 26.7 25.9 25.7 25.8 25.6 25.3 24.5 25.4 25.3 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 141 139 141 134 133 129 121 119 119 117 115 107 115 113 117 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 62 60 56 55 55 53 50 45 43 43 38 36 33 29 26 23 21 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 18 19 17 18 16 16 14 13 13 13 12 12 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 41 46 44 45 44 41 36 30 37 40 31 20 30 32 44 45 62 200 MB DIV 26 41 33 27 18 33 34 1 -11 9 -2 -2 -7 -22 -51 -60 -21 700-850 TADV -2 1 -2 -4 -3 -3 -3 1 2 4 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1598 1685 1776 1878 1962 2136 2271 2269 2120 1978 1852 1739 1616 1428 1277 1260 1110 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.2 15.2 15.2 15.2 15.1 15.2 15.5 16.0 16.7 17.2 17.6 18.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 123.6 124.8 125.9 127.1 128.3 130.5 132.3 133.8 135.1 136.3 137.4 138.4 139.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 11 10 8 7 6 6 5 6 7 8 4 4 7 HEAT CONTENT 9 12 16 13 9 4 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 9. 7. 6. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -0. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -5. -7. -8. -12. -14. -16. -18. -21. -22. -22. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.1 123.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 GREG 07/22/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.62 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.61 4.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.34 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 296.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.55 -3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 3.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.26 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.10 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.10 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.5% 21.7% 18.4% 14.2% 0.0% 18.2% 15.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 3.5% 2.4% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 8.4% 6.9% 5.0% 0.2% 6.1% 5.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 GREG 07/22/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##