* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092017 07/22/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 36 40 48 59 72 81 89 96 99 100 99 97 94 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 36 40 48 59 72 81 89 96 99 100 99 97 94 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 32 33 34 37 44 54 65 76 84 87 85 79 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 1 2 1 1 2 5 1 6 1 3 7 5 6 9 5 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 12 10 9 6 0 -6 -5 -6 -1 -1 0 -1 -3 -6 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 79 340 7 355 325 272 164 165 103 316 21 21 33 14 59 10 30 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.8 29.1 29.2 28.7 29.1 29.5 29.3 28.9 28.7 27.4 27.0 26.5 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 150 152 153 156 156 151 155 159 157 153 152 138 133 128 123 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 -52.5 -53.1 -51.8 -52.4 -51.3 -51.3 -50.6 -51.1 -50.6 -51.1 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 6 6 8 7 8 7 8 7 7 5 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 71 70 70 71 72 76 79 81 79 78 77 78 78 76 76 74 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 14 14 14 15 16 20 22 26 29 31 32 34 33 32 850 MB ENV VOR 45 40 37 26 19 14 14 10 15 -8 7 0 6 -7 5 9 25 200 MB DIV 16 21 26 43 47 51 108 102 126 59 64 57 64 32 65 10 28 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 0 0 -2 -2 0 1 1 0 -2 -1 -5 -4 -6 -7 LAND (KM) 659 689 666 629 592 532 487 444 421 438 468 565 573 672 718 721 749 LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.5 9.8 10.3 10.8 12.0 13.1 14.1 14.9 15.7 16.5 17.2 18.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.1 96.2 97.3 98.2 99.2 100.9 102.4 103.7 105.1 106.6 108.2 109.9 111.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 10 10 8 8 8 9 9 9 11 9 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 15 10 10 11 13 25 43 31 18 24 25 16 14 4 2 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 486 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 23. 27. 29. 32. 34. 36. 37. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 12. 16. 20. 20. 20. 20. 17. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 10. 18. 29. 42. 51. 59. 66. 69. 70. 69. 67. 64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.2 95.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 NINE 07/22/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.86 8.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 1.1 17.2 to 1.6 1.00 7.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.35 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 44.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.85 -6.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.68 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.10 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.66 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 37% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 51% is 10.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.1% 30.7% 24.1% 19.4% 0.0% 21.1% 36.6% 51.1% Logistic: 9.4% 58.8% 35.6% 23.2% 0.7% 39.2% 25.2% 52.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 1.3% 6.6% Consensus: 7.5% 30.7% 20.0% 14.2% 0.2% 20.2% 21.0% 36.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 NINE 07/22/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##