* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072017 07/22/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 42 42 41 41 40 39 42 38 36 34 32 29 28 27 25 V (KT) LAND 45 43 42 42 41 41 40 39 42 38 36 34 32 29 28 27 25 V (KT) LGEM 45 43 42 41 39 37 34 32 32 31 30 29 26 24 22 20 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 7 11 10 4 2 2 2 3 6 11 11 11 16 16 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -2 -1 -2 3 -1 2 0 0 -2 -3 0 0 2 3 SHEAR DIR 221 240 243 240 247 274 227 346 106 262 257 272 261 251 280 289 262 SST (C) 27.9 27.5 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.2 26.4 25.8 25.9 25.5 25.2 25.3 25.1 25.4 25.2 25.3 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 144 139 139 141 142 136 127 120 121 117 114 115 112 116 113 114 119 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -52.7 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 5 4 5 700-500 MB RH 66 64 65 60 57 56 53 51 44 41 36 35 32 35 33 32 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 19 19 19 18 18 17 18 15 14 14 13 12 11 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 29 39 41 44 44 44 41 31 31 35 40 34 30 21 17 25 37 200 MB DIV -5 2 34 53 56 36 39 20 -2 -6 0 -17 8 -19 -41 -47 -46 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -3 -1 -3 -2 -3 -2 1 3 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1439 1508 1583 1662 1745 1900 2035 2162 2265 2178 2019 1851 1695 1574 1389 1360 1206 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.6 15.7 15.8 16.1 16.6 17.2 17.8 18.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.3 122.4 123.5 124.6 125.7 127.9 129.8 131.5 133.0 134.4 135.8 137.3 138.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 7 8 7 6 7 5 4 7 HEAT CONTENT 14 9 9 11 15 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 8. 6. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. 1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -3. -7. -9. -11. -13. -16. -17. -18. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.0 121.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 GREG 07/22/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.63 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.57 3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.33 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 259.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.59 -3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.27 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.09 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.08 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 20.3% 16.5% 12.4% 0.0% 16.5% 14.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 7.0% 5.6% 4.1% 0.0% 5.5% 4.8% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 GREG 07/22/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##