* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/21/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 40 36 34 32 28 24 20 19 18 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 40 36 34 32 28 24 20 19 18 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 40 36 32 30 26 24 23 21 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 27 25 25 22 30 33 34 25 24 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 5 2 5 1 0 0 6 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 233 227 224 218 213 214 210 209 214 240 249 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.2 24.9 25.2 25.4 25.4 25.6 25.7 26.0 26.3 26.6 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 115 112 115 117 117 119 120 124 127 130 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.7 -53.7 -54.5 -54.7 -54.9 -55.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 8 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 51 50 46 43 40 37 37 36 37 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 15 16 15 15 14 14 16 15 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 46 36 32 30 25 16 11 -1 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -13 0 16 15 9 22 14 -7 35 15 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 9 5 5 5 6 7 11 9 7 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1466 1363 1261 1164 1068 878 675 483 313 173 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.6 18.8 19.1 19.3 19.9 20.5 21.2 21.7 22.2 22.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 140.9 141.9 142.8 143.7 144.6 146.4 148.4 150.5 152.8 155.3 157.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 749 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -13. -18. -23. -25. -27. -28. -29. -31. -33. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -13. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -11. -13. -17. -21. -25. -26. -27. -27. -30. -32. -35. -37. -39. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.3 140.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/21/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.38 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 338.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 33.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.41 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.0 to -2.0 0.26 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/21/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##