* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/20/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 49 43 38 34 29 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 49 43 38 34 29 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 50 45 40 37 31 27 24 21 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 27 26 27 29 26 33 33 42 33 29 23 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 3 1 4 2 4 3 7 6 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 245 246 236 231 231 220 221 212 217 215 235 243 264 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 25.3 25.3 25.0 24.9 25.3 25.5 25.6 26.0 26.0 26.4 26.8 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 115 116 113 111 116 118 119 124 124 129 133 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.8 -52.8 -53.7 -53.8 -54.5 -55.2 -55.5 -56.1 -56.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 3 4 4 5 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 58 56 53 51 45 39 37 36 36 39 41 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 17 17 16 15 15 14 11 12 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 65 55 47 43 33 31 25 11 2 -5 -15 -28 -31 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -3 -3 -8 6 29 4 12 8 3 14 12 12 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 7 7 7 4 0 3 5 5 2 0 -5 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1699 1607 1514 1417 1321 1140 964 797 619 444 287 199 192 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.4 18.6 18.9 19.1 19.6 20.3 21.0 21.7 22.2 22.8 23.3 23.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 138.7 139.5 140.4 141.3 142.2 143.9 145.6 147.3 149.3 151.6 154.3 157.1 160.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 9 8 9 9 9 11 12 13 13 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 692 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -15. -21. -26. -30. -31. -32. -33. -35. -37. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -11. -10. -14. -16. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -16. -21. -26. -32. -37. -46. -48. -54. -56. -57. -60. -61. -64. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.1 138.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/20/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.28 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.9 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 356.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.53 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.9 56.6 to 0.0 0.72 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.12 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/20/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##