* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/20/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 54 48 42 38 32 26 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 54 48 42 38 32 26 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 55 49 44 40 33 29 25 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 22 23 22 22 26 27 30 32 30 27 24 20 18 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 2 6 -1 3 1 5 8 8 4 5 0 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 236 241 239 235 229 220 210 201 201 208 213 223 235 224 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.3 25.2 25.2 25.1 25.1 25.0 25.3 25.5 25.7 25.8 26.1 26.4 26.8 26.6 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 115 114 114 113 113 112 115 118 120 122 126 129 133 132 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -53.5 -53.6 -54.7 -55.2 -55.8 -56.0 -56.7 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.2 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 3 3 4 5 5 6 6 8 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 62 59 56 54 49 42 40 36 37 36 42 41 48 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 19 17 17 18 16 16 13 15 13 12 10 9 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 80 62 53 44 43 33 26 18 2 -2 -13 -10 -22 -35 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 5 0 -2 8 13 10 5 19 27 26 9 22 3 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 7 0 2 5 2 1 6 5 7 8 3 -1 6 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1846 1759 1672 1585 1499 1318 1151 992 802 610 432 285 217 456 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.4 18.6 18.9 19.1 19.7 20.3 21.0 21.6 22.1 22.6 23.1 23.6 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 137.3 138.1 138.9 139.7 140.5 142.2 143.8 145.4 147.4 149.6 152.1 154.8 157.5 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 11 13 13 14 17 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 9 4 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -19. -22. -24. -24. -25. -26. -28. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -10. -7. -11. -12. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -18. -22. -28. -34. -38. -45. -45. -49. -51. -52. -51. -51. -53. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 18.1 137.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/20/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.23 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 362.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.54 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.25 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/20/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##