* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072017 07/20/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 47 53 57 64 68 69 69 63 64 64 62 61 58 57 57 V (KT) LAND 40 43 47 53 57 64 68 69 69 63 64 64 62 61 58 57 57 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 44 46 49 55 58 59 57 54 54 56 58 57 54 52 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 9 9 12 6 10 14 5 2 5 3 5 7 9 2 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 -1 -3 -2 1 -2 -2 -3 -2 0 1 0 0 5 5 SHEAR DIR 118 105 97 112 127 184 197 209 173 26 62 21 52 32 77 117 332 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.2 27.0 26.4 26.4 26.6 26.2 25.9 25.8 25.9 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 146 148 147 144 141 137 135 128 128 130 125 122 120 118 121 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -52.5 -52.8 -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 -51.6 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 77 77 77 76 76 71 66 62 57 52 47 45 43 41 39 44 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 17 19 20 20 22 23 23 20 21 22 20 20 18 17 18 850 MB ENV VOR 15 26 33 36 41 35 56 74 83 86 77 68 61 54 61 34 30 200 MB DIV 36 25 31 43 63 28 41 33 64 -14 -3 0 8 -14 0 10 25 700-850 TADV 2 -1 -2 0 1 1 7 4 1 -3 -3 0 2 3 4 4 3 LAND (KM) 1045 1059 1081 1116 1161 1281 1415 1601 1806 1996 2186 2242 2014 1907 1634 1657 1555 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.7 14.9 15.4 15.7 15.8 15.8 15.7 15.7 15.7 15.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.2 114.1 115.0 116.1 117.1 119.4 121.8 124.3 126.8 129.3 131.7 134.0 136.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 8 9 6 2 5 HEAT CONTENT 15 13 16 22 28 20 8 8 10 1 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. 18. 18. 17. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 8. 10. 6. 8. 7. 5. 5. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 13. 17. 24. 28. 29. 29. 23. 24. 24. 22. 21. 18. 17. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.0 113.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 GREG 07/20/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.73 7.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.58 4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.40 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 104.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.78 -5.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 3.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.69 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.17 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.53 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.6% 23.9% 22.1% 17.6% 12.4% 19.1% 16.8% 17.2% Logistic: 3.6% 17.1% 5.4% 3.0% 1.5% 5.0% 6.6% 2.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 3.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.9% 0.5% 0.0% Consensus: 5.4% 14.8% 9.4% 6.9% 4.7% 8.4% 8.0% 6.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 GREG 07/20/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##