* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/19/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 65 60 55 50 40 31 25 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 65 60 55 50 40 31 25 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 64 59 54 49 40 33 27 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 11 14 18 20 22 26 29 35 33 33 30 26 27 27 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 2 1 1 3 1 5 1 4 6 5 6 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 273 261 250 249 239 234 229 210 218 208 215 232 241 271 290 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.2 25.3 25.3 25.2 25.1 25.1 25.0 25.2 25.5 25.7 25.8 26.2 26.4 26.8 27.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 114 115 115 114 113 113 112 115 118 121 122 126 129 135 140 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.2 -52.6 -52.7 -53.1 -53.6 -54.3 -55.1 -55.7 -55.7 -56.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.2 -0.2 -0.6 -0.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 5 5 6 6 8 8 10 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 63 63 61 58 54 49 44 40 37 38 35 36 36 42 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 20 19 20 17 15 15 14 13 11 8 7 6 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 73 79 72 55 46 34 19 25 13 5 -12 -23 -32 -40 -44 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 20 5 -5 1 1 2 12 -2 21 4 3 7 -2 -4 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 7 7 8 8 9 5 4 3 5 6 2 -6 -4 -1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2003 1924 1846 1758 1671 1498 1328 1151 958 752 561 418 300 86 331 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.8 18.1 18.4 18.7 19.2 19.7 20.2 20.8 21.6 22.2 22.7 23.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 135.9 136.6 137.3 138.1 138.9 140.5 142.1 143.8 145.7 147.9 150.2 152.4 154.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 11 11 10 15 18 18 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 9 10 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -16. -17. -18. -20. -21. -21. -23. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -18. -21. -23. -25. -27. -28. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -13. -16. -18. -18. -17. -16. -15. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -15. -20. -30. -39. -45. -49. -54. -60. -64. -65. -67. -68. -69. -70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 17.5 135.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/19/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.14 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 17.2 to 1.6 0.17 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.21 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 405.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.41 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.80 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.69 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.38 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/19/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##