* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT EP082017 07/19/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 27 27 29 29 29 28 26 28 30 31 33 34 36 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 27 27 29 29 29 28 26 28 30 31 33 34 36 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 26 23 21 20 18 17 16 16 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 28 24 21 15 10 19 22 18 15 10 10 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 0 2 1 1 -3 -3 -4 -4 -1 -4 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 297 299 297 285 266 229 163 151 145 147 130 141 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.5 28.4 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.8 27.9 27.4 27.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 146 148 147 146 141 138 137 138 141 143 139 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 5 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 66 67 69 72 75 74 70 65 63 55 49 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 10 11 10 9 8 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -40 -34 -28 -20 16 37 55 65 80 78 84 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 7 19 8 12 8 20 25 20 26 2 10 -2 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 2 3 3 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1345 1383 1421 1460 1500 1580 1645 1688 1746 1832 1972 2130 2300 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.9 14.8 14.6 14.5 14.3 14.0 13.8 13.8 13.9 14.0 14.2 14.5 14.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.7 120.1 120.5 120.9 121.3 122.1 122.8 123.4 124.3 125.5 127.4 129.8 132.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 5 8 10 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 20 22 20 18 13 12 12 13 16 13 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -8. -9. -10. -9. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.9 119.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082017 EIGHT 07/19/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.82 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 119.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.76 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.32 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.19 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.9 56.6 to 0.0 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.67 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082017 EIGHT 07/19/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##