* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/19/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 83 77 73 67 56 46 38 32 30 27 27 29 28 31 31 30 V (KT) LAND 85 83 77 73 67 56 46 38 32 30 27 27 29 28 31 31 30 V (KT) LGEM 85 81 75 68 61 51 43 36 31 27 24 23 22 21 21 22 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 11 12 10 15 15 23 23 32 30 26 15 11 15 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 5 3 3 4 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 271 281 277 278 279 270 241 238 225 220 209 212 216 236 268 276 278 SST (C) 26.0 25.5 25.3 25.3 25.4 25.2 25.3 25.1 25.4 25.4 25.5 25.9 26.2 26.4 26.5 26.9 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 122 117 115 115 116 114 115 114 117 117 118 122 126 129 130 134 134 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -52.5 -52.7 -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -53.1 -53.3 -54.0 -54.4 -55.0 -55.2 -55.5 -55.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 3 2 3 4 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 64 63 65 63 64 61 56 51 47 45 40 38 35 34 35 37 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 20 21 19 20 18 17 15 16 15 16 18 15 16 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 50 59 59 66 71 49 36 13 9 6 3 8 8 2 -2 -13 -27 200 MB DIV 43 29 24 16 21 8 2 18 3 19 8 21 24 5 6 -14 10 700-850 TADV 7 7 5 5 5 7 9 11 6 6 12 3 4 4 1 6 5 LAND (KM) 2217 2146 2075 1995 1915 1740 1558 1375 1173 972 776 571 376 197 266 210 341 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.7 17.0 17.4 17.7 18.2 18.5 18.9 19.3 19.8 20.2 20.4 20.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 134.1 134.7 135.3 136.0 136.7 138.3 140.0 141.7 143.6 145.5 147.4 149.4 151.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 11 14 13 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 9 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -11. -15. -20. -25. -28. -31. -34. -35. -36. -38. -39. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -12. -11. -12. -10. -8. -9. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -8. -12. -18. -29. -39. -47. -53. -55. -58. -58. -56. -57. -54. -54. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 16.3 134.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/19/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.02 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 17.2 to 1.6 0.46 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.32 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 476.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.33 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.56 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.9 56.6 to 0.0 0.33 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 0.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 5.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/19/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##