* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT EP082017 07/18/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 26 27 29 32 34 36 36 37 36 36 39 40 42 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 26 27 29 32 34 36 36 37 36 36 39 40 42 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 26 23 21 20 19 20 20 21 21 21 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 29 29 25 19 13 6 12 9 10 9 10 10 13 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -2 -1 1 -3 1 -3 -3 -4 -3 0 -1 -2 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 302 299 298 295 287 272 204 141 160 158 175 186 201 194 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.2 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.1 27.8 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.1 27.7 27.0 27.2 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 144 147 148 148 142 139 139 140 142 145 141 134 136 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.3 -53.5 -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 6 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 67 68 69 71 75 75 71 63 60 52 50 45 43 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 10 12 12 11 11 9 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -47 -44 -38 -35 -28 -2 27 44 42 54 50 46 32 18 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 22 48 41 38 43 9 12 -17 -7 -4 -2 -21 -13 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 -1 0 3 3 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1314 1351 1387 1426 1465 1562 1628 1686 1765 1854 1984 2119 2229 2361 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.9 14.8 14.7 14.6 14.4 13.9 13.6 13.4 13.4 13.6 13.8 14.1 14.5 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.2 119.7 120.1 120.5 120.9 121.7 122.3 122.9 124.0 125.4 127.2 129.2 131.1 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 6 8 9 10 10 11 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 20 21 22 21 15 13 14 19 19 16 8 3 4 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 26. 28. 29. 29. 30. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -0. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 9. 10. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.9 119.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082017 EIGHT 07/18/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.82 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.9 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 123.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.76 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.15 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.20 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.54 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% Logistic: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082017 EIGHT 07/18/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##