* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/18/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 77 71 64 60 52 44 36 32 28 24 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 77 71 64 60 52 44 36 32 28 24 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 76 68 61 55 46 40 35 30 26 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 8 5 7 9 7 13 13 23 23 31 28 29 33 30 21 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 9 10 5 1 2 2 8 8 5 4 5 5 -1 1 0 N/A SHEAR DIR 255 248 229 229 242 280 265 248 242 231 232 232 239 246 255 244 N/A SST (C) 27.0 26.5 26.0 25.6 25.4 25.6 25.3 25.3 25.2 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.6 26.2 26.7 26.8 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 128 122 118 116 118 115 115 114 116 116 117 120 128 133 133 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.9 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.7 -53.5 -54.0 -54.7 -55.2 -55.8 -56.0 N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.5 -0.1 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 4 4 3 4 3 4 4 5 6 7 7 8 9 10 N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 59 59 58 59 56 54 50 49 47 43 40 39 38 36 40 N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 23 24 21 23 21 22 19 19 18 17 15 13 12 10 8 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 39 50 63 65 73 49 34 20 15 17 2 6 1 0 4 N/A 200 MB DIV 33 31 36 53 42 20 -4 -5 14 12 6 18 16 10 6 -16 N/A 700-850 TADV 11 6 8 8 7 2 0 1 2 4 0 2 1 4 -5 -2 N/A LAND (KM) 2315 2280 2206 2137 2067 1911 1746 1583 1420 1249 1068 868 659 397 32 77 N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.9 16.3 16.6 16.9 17.4 17.8 18.2 18.6 18.9 19.3 19.6 19.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x N/A LONG(DEG W) 133.0 133.6 134.2 134.8 135.4 136.8 138.3 139.8 141.3 142.9 144.6 146.5 148.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 10 11 16 17 13 N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 9 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -14. -19. -23. -27. -30. -33. -35. -36. -37. -39. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -14. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. -16. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -14. -21. -25. -33. -41. -49. -53. -57. -61. -64. -67. -70. -73. -73. -72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 15.4 133.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/18/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.08 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.08 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.61 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.39 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 527.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.26 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.56 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.48 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.32 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.9% 14.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 5.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/18/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##