* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/17/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 109 107 101 97 83 71 61 55 48 42 36 31 26 24 24 24 V (KT) LAND 110 109 107 101 97 83 71 61 55 48 42 36 31 26 24 24 24 V (KT) LGEM 110 107 100 93 85 72 60 51 45 39 33 27 22 18 15 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 5 4 6 6 9 10 11 12 22 21 27 27 23 12 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 4 4 5 7 1 7 7 8 6 7 5 0 4 1 0 SHEAR DIR 218 233 219 225 243 229 240 285 277 243 238 221 230 253 254 252 278 SST (C) 28.1 27.5 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.2 25.8 25.9 25.5 24.8 25.5 25.5 25.4 25.8 26.0 26.4 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 145 138 135 134 133 124 120 121 117 110 118 118 116 121 124 129 137 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.1 -52.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -53.2 -54.0 -54.4 -55.2 -55.4 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 62 60 61 60 61 60 59 56 53 53 53 51 49 49 48 43 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 26 27 24 27 25 24 22 22 21 19 17 14 12 10 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 28 34 32 36 43 56 71 60 52 41 33 19 16 21 15 0 -4 200 MB DIV 62 73 92 75 56 68 38 35 2 -1 0 27 15 -6 -7 -5 -17 700-850 TADV -3 1 0 1 3 6 6 -3 -1 6 3 4 4 3 0 2 -5 LAND (KM) 2263 2284 2307 2326 2326 2188 2028 1862 1689 1508 1318 1116 928 751 485 210 7 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.0 14.4 14.9 15.3 16.2 16.8 17.2 17.5 17.7 17.8 18.0 18.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 130.5 131.3 132.0 132.7 133.3 134.4 135.8 137.3 138.9 140.6 142.4 144.3 146.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 7 8 7 8 8 9 9 8 10 12 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 10 6 4 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -14. -23. -31. -39. -46. -51. -55. -57. -59. -61. -63. -66. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. -1. -2. -1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -9. -13. -27. -39. -49. -55. -62. -68. -74. -79. -84. -86. -86. -86. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 13.5 130.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/17/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.74 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.58 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 613.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.16 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.0 to -2.0 0.31 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.7% 19.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.7% 4.1% 3.9% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.4% 7.7% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/17/17 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##