* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/16/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 113 111 109 107 96 83 74 64 58 50 43 36 31 27 24 22 V (KT) LAND 115 113 111 109 107 96 83 74 64 58 50 43 36 31 27 24 22 V (KT) LGEM 115 111 107 102 96 83 72 62 54 47 41 34 27 21 17 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 6 3 3 1 7 8 8 12 12 20 28 36 32 38 36 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -1 0 4 3 7 4 1 8 8 12 5 2 0 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 263 251 242 182 238 274 291 287 274 280 259 249 251 251 253 251 244 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.0 27.5 27.3 26.5 25.9 25.8 25.5 25.0 25.6 25.5 25.4 25.9 25.8 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 148 144 139 136 128 121 120 118 112 119 116 117 123 121 130 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -53.4 -53.8 -54.7 -55.0 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 66 64 61 60 59 59 58 58 52 50 48 49 50 51 45 45 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 25 27 27 29 28 26 25 23 23 21 19 16 14 11 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 11 19 23 30 36 42 42 58 46 63 40 40 23 25 24 24 22 200 MB DIV 100 88 65 65 74 78 59 79 0 -16 1 1 -7 5 0 5 11 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -6 -4 -4 0 4 11 6 1 6 11 8 4 0 -5 -1 LAND (KM) 2137 2190 2236 2269 2307 2345 2180 2026 1869 1695 1512 1320 1139 1052 729 628 360 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.9 13.3 13.7 14.1 15.0 15.7 16.4 16.9 17.2 17.5 17.7 17.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 127.9 128.9 129.9 130.8 131.7 133.2 134.6 135.9 137.3 138.9 140.6 142.4 144.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 10 9 8 8 7 7 8 8 9 6 9 11 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 17 13 12 9 6 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -5. -12. -21. -31. -39. -46. -52. -57. -59. -61. -63. -66. -70. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 2. -1. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11. -11. -10. -9. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -0. -0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -8. -19. -32. -41. -51. -57. -65. -72. -79. -84. -88. -91. -93. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 12.5 127.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/16/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.01 0.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.1 17.2 to 1.6 0.91 5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.62 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 592.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.18 -1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.08 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.81 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.09 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.92 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.31 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.2% 23.9% 16.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.2% 6.8% 6.2% 4.4% 2.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.3% 10.3% 7.6% 1.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/16/17 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##