* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/16/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 116 117 118 117 111 102 92 85 74 68 61 54 47 43 38 35 V (KT) LAND 115 116 117 118 117 111 102 92 85 74 68 61 54 47 43 38 35 V (KT) LGEM 115 115 114 112 109 100 88 75 62 53 46 40 32 25 20 16 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 4 1 1 2 3 6 8 7 10 15 21 30 35 34 32 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -1 -2 -3 5 8 6 3 3 11 13 13 0 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 344 31 188 27 155 187 271 269 273 279 269 263 257 262 263 257 257 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 27.5 27.3 26.2 25.8 25.6 25.4 25.3 25.8 25.5 25.7 25.7 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 150 149 148 139 136 125 120 118 116 115 120 118 120 119 125 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -52.1 -52.5 -52.6 -53.6 -54.4 -54.8 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 4 4 5 4 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 69 69 67 64 62 60 60 58 57 53 51 52 53 54 45 50 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 26 27 28 28 30 29 27 26 23 23 21 19 16 14 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 7 5 11 11 13 31 40 41 55 45 51 42 26 16 20 4 3 200 MB DIV 72 75 87 105 85 75 81 40 38 -9 -16 -2 -18 -3 -20 -7 -21 700-850 TADV -7 -6 -4 -4 -3 -2 1 6 9 8 7 10 8 9 3 -1 -5 LAND (KM) 2013 2068 2130 2196 2250 2330 2304 2133 1970 1802 1620 1443 1265 1144 806 776 533 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.3 12.7 13.1 13.4 14.2 15.0 15.9 16.6 17.1 17.3 17.3 17.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 125.7 126.9 128.0 129.1 130.2 132.1 133.6 135.0 136.4 137.9 139.6 141.3 143.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 11 11 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 11 8 7 12 HEAT CONTENT 41 25 16 13 11 6 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -10. -19. -28. -37. -44. -50. -54. -56. -58. -61. -64. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 6. 2. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 3. 3. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 2. -4. -13. -23. -30. -40. -47. -54. -61. -68. -72. -77. -80. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 11.9 125.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/16/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.05 0.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.1 17.2 to 1.6 0.97 5.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.66 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 434.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.38 -2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.08 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.80 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.20 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.40 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.3% 24.8% 17.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 12.1% 20.5% 14.1% 10.8% 7.6% 2.3% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.8% 15.4% 10.5% 3.7% 2.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/16/17 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##