* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/15/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 131 131 129 124 119 111 99 96 87 77 72 64 60 55 48 44 V (KT) LAND 125 131 131 129 124 119 111 99 96 87 77 72 64 60 55 48 44 V (KT) LGEM 125 129 126 122 119 113 108 99 85 73 62 52 47 42 36 29 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 7 7 8 1 3 4 3 5 5 11 15 18 19 31 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -2 -5 -2 -1 2 10 12 7 0 5 12 19 11 7 SHEAR DIR 337 3 357 21 37 167 226 213 227 255 251 276 283 273 269 269 262 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.4 27.9 27.3 26.9 26.4 26.2 25.6 26.2 26.2 26.0 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 150 152 151 149 149 143 137 132 127 125 119 125 125 122 122 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.2 -52.9 -52.2 -52.7 -51.9 -52.6 -52.2 -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -52.2 -53.1 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 71 69 69 70 72 70 69 66 64 59 56 51 46 45 46 49 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 21 22 22 25 26 25 28 27 24 24 22 21 20 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR 29 29 21 16 11 8 13 19 30 30 44 52 59 68 61 53 45 200 MB DIV 87 70 58 61 75 87 95 72 95 48 48 10 -4 -23 -12 -8 10 700-850 TADV -6 -7 -6 -7 -7 -3 -1 -1 1 7 8 6 7 7 8 6 6 LAND (KM) 1736 1799 1867 1918 1975 2104 2238 2331 2371 2162 1976 1806 1635 1454 1260 1145 947 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.9 11.0 11.3 11.5 12.1 12.7 13.4 14.2 14.9 15.6 16.1 16.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 120.2 121.3 122.4 123.6 124.7 127.1 129.3 131.3 133.2 135.0 136.6 138.1 139.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 12 12 12 11 10 10 9 8 8 8 9 8 7 10 HEAT CONTENT 25 34 43 51 49 25 13 9 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -13. -22. -32. -40. -48. -54. -58. -60. -62. -64. -68. -72. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 2. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 8. 11. 10. 9. 5. 1. -4. -6. -6. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -7. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 0. -0. 2. 4. 3. 8. 6. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 6. 4. -1. -6. -14. -26. -29. -38. -48. -53. -61. -65. -70. -77. -81. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 10.7 120.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/15/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.83 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.67 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.57 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 385.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.44 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.41 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.31 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 24.1% 20.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 24.3% 12.3% 8.7% 7.3% 3.8% 2.9% 3.4% 0.2% Bayesian: 15.6% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 21.3% 11.9% 2.9% 2.4% 1.3% 1.0% 1.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/15/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##