* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/14/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 116 117 116 115 110 108 107 102 97 89 84 77 72 67 62 57 V (KT) LAND 110 116 117 116 115 110 108 107 102 97 89 84 77 72 67 62 57 V (KT) LGEM 110 116 117 114 112 107 106 107 100 87 75 65 60 56 51 45 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 7 8 10 7 3 1 1 3 7 7 12 10 17 16 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 1 0 -4 -8 -4 0 7 8 2 -1 -2 5 9 17 10 SHEAR DIR 308 311 332 15 33 40 21 159 258 294 298 288 279 278 280 265 276 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.4 28.4 28.1 27.5 27.3 26.7 26.4 25.9 26.0 26.3 26.1 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 149 150 152 149 149 146 139 137 130 127 122 122 125 123 122 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -52.6 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 5 4 5 4 5 6 700-500 MB RH 74 71 68 70 70 69 65 63 60 58 53 47 42 41 38 42 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 20 21 22 22 24 27 28 28 25 25 24 23 22 21 19 850 MB ENV VOR 32 34 28 25 19 11 9 20 31 33 39 68 73 79 70 62 58 200 MB DIV 94 79 64 62 74 91 64 93 68 70 54 52 2 -7 -18 -3 -5 700-850 TADV -3 -6 -8 -8 -8 -5 -2 -2 -2 3 6 7 4 7 3 4 5 LAND (KM) 1678 1738 1802 1869 1924 2043 2178 2295 2400 2251 2053 1859 1666 1509 1345 1239 1028 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.8 10.9 11.1 11.3 11.9 12.5 13.2 13.8 14.4 15.1 15.7 16.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.3 120.4 121.4 122.6 123.7 126.1 128.4 130.6 132.6 134.3 136.0 137.7 139.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 11 10 9 9 8 8 7 6 7 11 HEAT CONTENT 19 27 34 44 51 38 15 10 6 5 3 1 0 0 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -7. -14. -22. -28. -34. -38. -42. -43. -45. -47. -51. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 4. 8. 10. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 8. 11. 11. 9. 6. 2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 9. 11. 11. 7. 7. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 7. 6. 5. -0. -2. -3. -8. -13. -21. -26. -33. -38. -43. -48. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 10.7 119.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/14/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.10 0.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.83 7.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.60 4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.60 4.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 344.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.49 -3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.16 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.74 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.35 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.37 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 34.7% 27.1% 22.3% 18.2% 15.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 27.7% 18.0% 13.9% 11.0% 6.8% 3.3% 6.2% 0.7% Bayesian: 43.8% 9.8% 2.4% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 35.4% 18.3% 12.9% 10.5% 7.4% 1.1% 2.1% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/14/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##