* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EUGENE EP052017 07/12/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 25 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 25 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 26 23 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 14 16 16 16 15 15 21 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 3 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 247 247 251 261 266 254 250 228 229 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 21.8 21.2 21.0 21.0 21.0 20.7 20.7 20.4 20.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 79 72 70 70 70 67 67 63 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -51.5 -51.4 -50.9 -51.1 -51.4 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 45 42 40 40 36 30 27 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 12 11 11 10 9 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 41 27 14 0 -17 -43 -48 -66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -10 -10 -30 -25 -13 -12 4 -1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 4 1 0 5 2 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 821 831 847 878 914 965 1000 994 1017 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.3 23.8 24.4 24.9 25.4 26.3 27.1 27.8 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 121.5 122.1 122.6 123.2 123.8 124.9 126.1 127.1 128.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. -6. -5. -6. -10. -15. -20. -25. -28. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -5. -10. -14. -15. -15. -16. -18. -21. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. -17. -18. -20. -23. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -10. -14. -14. -14. -14. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -14. -17. -23. -28. -34. -45. -50. -55. -60. -64. -70. -75. -81. -87. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 23.3 121.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052017 EUGENE 07/12/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.12 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.13 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 259.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.58 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 41.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.27 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.36 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052017 EUGENE 07/12/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##