* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EUGENE EP052017 07/11/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 37 33 28 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 41 37 33 28 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 41 37 33 30 25 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 8 8 13 13 11 11 12 15 17 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 1 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 254 249 230 237 242 236 235 225 218 214 218 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.7 23.9 22.7 21.7 21.1 21.7 21.7 21.5 21.4 21.2 20.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 109 101 88 77 71 77 77 75 73 71 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -51.6 -51.6 -51.4 -51.5 -51.8 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 50 48 47 45 40 38 33 30 27 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 15 14 13 11 10 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 56 60 45 40 17 0 -16 -28 -47 -45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 -11 -12 -11 -9 -22 -1 -1 3 -5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -2 -1 0 0 2 3 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 852 837 821 809 804 832 878 901 902 867 850 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.4 22.0 22.6 23.2 23.8 24.9 25.9 26.9 27.6 28.3 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.8 120.3 120.8 121.3 121.7 122.7 123.6 124.5 125.1 125.7 126.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. -18. -23. -27. -32. -35. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -15. -16. -16. -17. -19. -22. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -12. -14. -17. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -12. -17. -24. -29. -35. -43. -49. -57. -61. -65. -69. -72. -77. -81. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 21.4 119.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052017 EUGENE 07/11/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.14 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 17.2 to 1.6 0.43 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.12 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 359.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.58 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.7 56.6 to 0.0 0.33 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052017 EUGENE 07/11/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##