* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EUGENE EP052017 07/10/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 76 72 68 63 54 45 36 27 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 76 72 68 63 54 45 36 27 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 75 69 63 58 48 40 33 28 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 6 4 3 5 7 6 8 7 9 9 14 13 13 14 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 7 7 4 -1 0 0 -2 2 0 1 -1 3 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 205 232 254 239 247 278 252 236 193 191 153 162 174 187 211 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.6 26.1 25.3 25.0 24.7 23.6 22.2 21.7 21.8 21.6 21.3 21.3 20.7 20.1 19.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 124 116 112 109 97 83 77 78 76 72 72 66 60 59 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -51.7 -51.5 -51.6 -51.7 -52.1 -52.5 -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.2 -0.2 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 62 59 57 59 51 51 47 47 40 35 31 28 27 26 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 21 21 20 19 17 15 13 11 8 7 6 6 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 28 20 30 39 47 39 19 13 -1 -19 -30 -52 -42 -42 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 3 -2 -11 -25 -19 -8 -1 -4 -4 13 2 6 0 -1 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -8 -9 -8 -6 -1 -1 5 1 3 -2 -1 -3 -9 -9 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 865 826 800 793 797 772 755 759 792 813 842 834 831 756 687 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.3 19.1 19.9 20.6 21.3 22.6 23.8 24.9 25.9 26.9 27.6 28.2 28.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.9 117.5 118.0 118.6 119.1 120.1 121.1 121.9 122.7 123.5 124.2 124.9 125.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 6 4 4 5 5 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -3. -4. -10. -17. -24. -30. -36. -41. -47. -52. -58. -64. -68. -71. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. -14. -15. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -15. -17. -21. -21. -21. -19. -18. -17. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -12. -17. -26. -35. -44. -53. -61. -70. -76. -82. -86. -93. -96.-100. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 18.3 116.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052017 EUGENE 07/10/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.08 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.78 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.14 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 517.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.28 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.92 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 5.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052017 EUGENE 07/10/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##