* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR AL042017 07/06/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 37 42 47 48 51 51 54 58 62 65 68 69 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 37 42 47 48 51 51 54 58 62 65 68 69 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 31 33 34 35 35 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 6 1 5 8 10 19 18 27 20 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 9 5 3 0 0 2 -1 1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 24 48 18 260 278 268 279 277 292 292 298 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.6 27.0 27.3 27.2 27.4 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.5 27.8 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 127 131 130 132 137 138 136 132 136 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 122 127 131 130 132 137 136 132 125 128 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.1 -54.2 -54.5 -54.6 -54.3 -54.7 -54.5 -55.2 -54.9 -55.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 59 56 54 50 47 46 50 50 55 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 9 9 7 7 6 5 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -18 -8 -7 -2 -6 -13 -26 -35 -41 -49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 5 -3 6 1 8 31 34 22 11 -2 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 11 15 15 11 18 9 4 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1446 1357 1279 1213 1178 1100 943 722 491 399 464 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.5 14.0 14.6 15.1 16.4 17.7 19.2 20.6 21.8 23.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 41.7 43.5 45.3 47.1 49.0 52.6 55.9 58.9 61.7 64.5 67.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 18 18 19 19 18 16 15 15 15 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 12 23 11 12 33 25 28 14 30 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 24. 28. 31. 33. 36. 36. 37. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 4. 1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -9. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 17. 22. 23. 26. 26. 29. 33. 37. 40. 43. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 41.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042017 FOUR 07/06/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 25.9 to 2.2 0.85 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 33.3 to 3.1 0.72 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.51 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 168.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.73 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.4 30.0 to 128.0 0.75 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.16 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.3 95.0 to 0.0 0.89 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 15.9% 10.8% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 10.7% 0.0% Logistic: 6.5% 13.7% 9.9% 5.3% 2.1% 8.7% 6.2% 6.2% Bayesian: 0.8% 8.6% 4.1% 0.1% 0.1% 1.7% 1.5% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 12.7% 8.2% 4.4% 0.7% 3.5% 6.2% 2.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042017 FOUR 07/06/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042017 FOUR 07/06/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 31 33 37 42 47 48 51 51 54 58 62 65 68 69 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 34 39 44 45 48 48 51 55 59 62 65 66 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 29 34 39 40 43 43 46 50 54 57 60 61 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 26 31 32 35 35 38 42 46 49 52 53 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT