* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP042017 06/28/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 30 26 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 30 26 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 28 24 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 0 1 4 6 8 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 2 3 3 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 131 171 183 181 180 184 185 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.3 25.1 24.8 24.2 23.8 23.3 23.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 116 114 110 104 99 94 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 66 63 60 59 55 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 9 8 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 18 0 -15 -11 -16 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -3 -3 1 -3 -12 -6 -27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 -1 0 1 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 455 485 530 543 560 635 742 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.6 20.0 20.3 20.7 21.0 21.4 21.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.6 113.5 114.3 115.1 115.9 117.3 118.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 3. 0. -2. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -8. -9. -8. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -16. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -13. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -13. -16. -21. -28. -31. -32. -33. -35. -36. -38. -39. -39. -40. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.6 112.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042017 DORA 06/28/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.42 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.85 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.15 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 180.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.81 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.70 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.31 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042017 DORA 06/28/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##