* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP042017 06/26/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 67 71 74 75 71 64 54 47 39 34 30 28 28 27 26 V (KT) LAND 55 61 67 71 74 75 71 64 54 47 39 34 30 28 28 27 26 V (KT) LGEM 55 60 64 66 67 64 59 52 47 41 35 30 26 23 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 4 7 7 12 7 3 1 2 6 10 8 8 4 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 0 0 0 2 3 2 3 4 1 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 27 69 121 87 68 64 89 210 119 141 155 151 148 89 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.4 27.8 27.3 26.7 26.1 25.3 25.0 24.8 24.3 23.9 24.4 24.3 24.7 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 149 143 137 131 124 116 112 110 105 100 105 105 110 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.9 -52.4 -51.7 -52.5 -52.2 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 5 3 2 1 1 0 1 1 2 2 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 76 74 72 71 70 63 64 58 57 48 41 34 30 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 14 14 13 12 11 9 9 7 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 13 22 30 31 23 12 21 0 -8 -15 -3 14 32 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 52 47 39 31 32 -18 -8 -5 -18 -4 -2 -27 -21 -27 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -1 1 0 -5 -5 -6 -2 0 0 2 3 6 3 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 236 246 266 279 326 455 440 501 616 706 823 941 1070 1312 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.6 17.1 17.6 18.1 18.8 19.2 19.6 19.9 20.0 19.9 19.7 19.4 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 103.8 104.8 105.9 106.9 107.8 109.7 111.5 113.3 115.1 116.8 118.3 119.6 120.9 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 9 11 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 11 7 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 424 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 33.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -5. -5. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 16. 19. 20. 16. 9. -1. -8. -16. -21. -25. -27. -27. -28. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.1 103.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042017 DORA 06/26/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.55 7.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 6.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 17.2 to 1.6 0.66 6.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.40 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 111.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.77 -7.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 8.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.90 6.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.04 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.46 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 4.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 29.4% 50.7% 36.0% 25.5% 16.0% 20.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 46.4% 48.2% 28.3% 16.3% 9.5% 3.2% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 7.2% 13.0% 3.7% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 27.6% 37.3% 22.6% 14.5% 8.7% 8.1% 0.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042017 DORA 06/26/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##