* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BRET AL022017 06/20/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 37 36 33 30 31 32 33 35 37 39 42 44 47 48 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 36 35 32 29 30 31 32 34 35 38 40 43 46 47 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 34 33 30 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 15 15 13 21 21 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 8 8 7 7 8 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 206 221 222 193 195 204 201 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.8 26.5 26.6 27.7 27.4 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 121 122 136 132 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 140 137 121 122 136 132 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.4 -54.5 -53.8 -53.7 -54.3 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 10 9 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 69 71 71 73 76 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 13 12 10 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 10 14 21 16 34 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 115 117 94 84 85 29 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 3 2 7 12 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 69 33 11 117 154 70 272 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.7 10.3 10.8 11.4 11.9 12.7 13.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 60.4 62.0 63.7 65.3 67.0 70.8 74.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 17 17 17 18 19 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 13 1 2 18 9 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 23 CX,CY: -21/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 732 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 23. 26. 28. 30. 30. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -4. -3. -2. -0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 9.7 60.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022017 BRET 06/20/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 25.9 to 2.2 0.46 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 33.3 to 3.1 0.45 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.40 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 114.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.80 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.68 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.64 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 14.4% 9.5% 6.1% 3.1% 7.4% 7.6% 9.4% Logistic: 2.4% 9.4% 3.3% 2.0% 1.4% 2.5% 3.8% 5.9% Bayesian: 0.6% 2.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 1.2% 6.8% Consensus: 2.4% 8.7% 4.4% 2.7% 1.5% 3.4% 4.2% 7.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022017 BRET 06/20/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022017 BRET 06/20/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 36 36 35 32 29 30 31 32 34 35 38 40 43 46 47 18HR AGO 35 34 35 35 34 31 28 29 30 31 33 34 37 39 42 45 46 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 30 27 24 25 26 27 29 30 33 35 38 41 42 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 21 18 19 20 21 23 24 27 29 32 35 36 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT