* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OTTO EP222016 11/26/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 36 35 35 36 37 37 37 37 38 39 40 42 44 44 45 V (KT) LAND 40 38 36 35 35 36 37 37 37 37 38 39 40 42 44 44 45 V (KT) LGEM 40 37 34 33 31 30 29 28 26 23 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 18 21 21 21 16 4 20 23 11 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 0 0 1 6 18 8 0 6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 93 88 94 96 94 92 130 305 307 290 269 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 27.8 28.0 27.7 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.4 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 144 146 143 141 141 141 142 143 147 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.0 -53.9 -53.5 -54.4 -54.9 -55.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 48 49 50 50 48 47 42 42 43 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -27 -34 -33 -28 -21 -25 -23 -29 -47 -48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 7 15 7 -5 -23 13 -5 -21 -32 -28 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 6 6 6 3 5 4 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 588 676 781 820 863 947 1005 1020 988 943 897 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.1 8.9 8.6 8.5 8.3 8.3 8.7 9.3 10.1 11.0 12.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.3 94.7 96.2 97.6 99.1 101.8 104.0 105.8 107.0 107.8 108.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 14 14 12 10 8 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 3 7 6 4 5 10 16 11 16 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 20. 21. 22. 23. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -5. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 5. 4. 2. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 4. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 9.1 93.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP222016 OTTO 11/26/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.71 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.17 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 216.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.50 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.02 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.77 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP222016 OTTO 11/26/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##