* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OTTO EP222016 11/25/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 46 45 46 47 49 51 53 52 52 54 54 56 57 58 59 V (KT) LAND 50 48 46 45 46 47 49 51 53 52 52 54 54 56 57 58 59 V (KT) LGEM 50 48 46 45 44 44 43 43 42 40 38 36 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 17 20 18 20 23 20 13 3 12 7 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 5 3 0 -4 0 4 14 5 4 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 133 116 110 97 90 96 96 108 295 307 310 161 252 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.7 26.8 27.6 28.1 28.1 27.5 27.3 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.3 28.6 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 133 142 147 147 141 139 146 144 143 145 148 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 -54.2 -53.8 -54.5 -54.8 -54.6 -54.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 59 57 55 53 55 55 52 45 45 46 49 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 24 8 -6 -20 -28 -17 -15 -7 -7 -22 -28 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 29 37 31 42 18 -16 11 -25 -8 -19 -6 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 7 7 5 4 8 6 5 2 0 -1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 296 391 477 546 624 759 817 913 950 938 892 814 752 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.0 9.8 9.5 9.4 9.2 9.0 9.1 9.3 9.8 10.4 11.3 12.3 13.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 88.6 90.0 91.4 92.9 94.4 97.6 100.6 103.3 105.3 106.6 107.4 107.7 108.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 15 15 15 14 12 9 6 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 1 3 4 3 6 3 10 13 10 12 21 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -5. -4. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. 1. 3. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 10.0 88.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP222016 OTTO 11/25/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.55 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 209.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.76 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.43 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.57 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 4.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP222016 OTTO 11/25/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##