* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OTTO AL162016 11/23/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 64 64 64 61 59 57 61 62 60 61 62 67 69 71 70 V (KT) LAND 60 62 64 64 56 43 40 38 43 43 41 42 44 48 51 52 52 V (KT) LGEM 60 61 62 62 61 37 43 43 43 43 40 37 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 16 15 11 14 26 25 30 23 26 24 19 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -2 -1 -2 -1 -2 1 3 6 6 7 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 131 129 134 126 118 132 133 124 113 127 113 107 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.2 27.8 27.4 26.9 27.9 28.7 27.9 26.7 27.2 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 146 139 134 129 124 136 148 136 122 127 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 141 141 143 135 131 128 123 136 148 136 122 127 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -54.4 -54.2 -54.0 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 6 6 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 67 69 71 71 72 67 65 58 57 56 59 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 17 14 13 10 9 9 11 12 11 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 60 57 59 61 61 68 40 13 -10 -13 -12 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 73 52 45 75 84 54 22 26 48 93 63 -4 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 3 3 2 2 12 9 6 6 8 7 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 236 202 152 79 -3 8 214 364 491 642 682 728 817 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.1 10.7 10.3 10.0 9.8 9.8 10.0 10.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 81.0 81.6 82.3 83.1 83.9 85.9 88.2 90.7 93.2 95.7 98.2 100.7 103.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 8 9 10 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 33 36 25 13 4 1 4 8 4 1 3 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -9. -7. -5. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -9. -9. -11. -13. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 4. 1. -1. -3. 1. 2. -0. 1. 2. 7. 9. 11. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 11.2 81.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162016 OTTO 11/23/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 5.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 25.9 to 2.2 0.51 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.19 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 33.3 to 3.1 0.71 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.98 3.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.61 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 109.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.80 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.49 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.47 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.2% 29.8% 20.1% 10.4% 6.7% 10.0% 8.8% 0.0% Logistic: 8.5% 35.4% 20.7% 9.5% 8.4% 10.8% 9.8% 6.5% Bayesian: 1.5% 21.5% 4.7% 0.7% 0.2% 1.1% 1.3% 4.2% Consensus: 6.4% 28.9% 15.2% 6.9% 5.1% 7.3% 6.6% 3.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162016 OTTO 11/23/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162016 OTTO 11/23/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 62 64 64 56 43 40 38 43 43 41 42 44 48 51 52 52 18HR AGO 60 59 61 61 53 40 37 35 40 40 38 39 41 45 48 49 49 12HR AGO 60 57 56 56 48 35 32 30 35 35 33 34 36 40 43 44 44 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 42 29 26 24 29 29 27 28 30 34 37 38 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT