* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OTTO AL162016 11/22/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 56 59 62 67 73 80 83 72 63 58 57 61 63 66 66 V (KT) LAND 50 53 56 59 62 67 73 80 73 44 38 34 33 37 39 42 41 V (KT) LGEM 50 54 56 59 61 65 70 76 75 41 39 38 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 21 16 16 16 12 9 11 12 16 22 26 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -9 -8 -6 -6 -4 -4 -5 -1 0 3 7 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 147 153 158 146 141 132 108 122 111 111 106 120 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.8 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 146 146 146 147 148 148 138 134 130 133 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 136 137 138 139 139 141 142 143 134 130 126 129 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -53.1 -52.9 -53.4 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 6 6 4 6 4 5 5 5 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 57 57 57 60 63 65 66 67 69 71 71 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 18 19 20 19 21 21 14 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 57 58 65 63 67 71 72 75 61 74 79 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 84 90 85 87 84 93 113 70 65 55 53 18 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 1 3 7 7 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 159 151 144 147 154 194 178 116 -3 -66 76 190 245 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.0 10.9 10.9 10.9 10.9 10.9 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.2 79.4 79.5 79.8 80.0 80.7 81.5 82.5 83.8 85.2 86.7 88.2 89.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 2 2 2 4 4 5 7 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 39 38 40 39 38 38 41 44 16 8 5 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. 19. 19. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 1. -9. -17. -21. -22. -22. -21. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 17. 23. 30. 33. 22. 13. 8. 7. 11. 13. 16. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 11.0 79.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162016 OTTO 11/22/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 25.9 to 2.2 0.34 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.26 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 33.3 to 3.1 0.48 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.21 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 196.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.70 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.59 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.57 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.6 95.0 to 0.0 0.91 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 18.4% 11.8% 8.4% 5.0% 10.0% 14.3% 16.4% Logistic: 6.8% 35.0% 19.3% 13.2% 8.9% 17.2% 18.2% 19.5% Bayesian: 4.9% 15.3% 4.7% 0.4% 0.1% 2.4% 21.0% 1.0% Consensus: 6.2% 22.9% 11.9% 7.3% 4.7% 9.9% 17.8% 12.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162016 OTTO 11/22/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162016 OTTO 11/22/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 53 56 59 62 67 73 80 73 44 38 34 33 37 39 42 41 18HR AGO 50 49 52 55 58 63 69 76 69 40 34 30 29 33 35 38 37 12HR AGO 50 47 46 49 52 57 63 70 63 34 28 24 23 27 29 32 31 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 43 48 54 61 54 25 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT