* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIXTEEN AL162016 11/21/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 38 44 52 62 72 74 68 60 57 62 64 66 66 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 38 44 52 62 72 62 39 35 33 37 39 42 42 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 32 34 37 41 45 42 32 33 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 17 18 19 16 17 13 13 11 11 13 19 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -7 -8 -6 -6 -5 -7 -2 0 6 8 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 161 157 155 160 157 138 131 103 103 101 119 102 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.2 27.9 27.8 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 145 145 144 145 145 147 147 138 134 133 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 133 135 135 135 135 137 138 141 142 135 130 130 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -53.8 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -52.8 -53.1 -52.3 -52.9 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 4 6 4 6 4 5 5 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 58 57 56 55 56 58 64 65 67 69 71 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 17 18 17 18 19 20 23 22 18 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 67 71 63 59 61 61 69 72 76 70 63 82 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 84 83 86 88 85 74 77 93 80 102 85 69 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 1 2 1 0 0 2 7 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 212 206 200 200 200 210 236 210 116 -13 -39 99 233 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.5 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.1 11.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.3 79.3 79.4 79.5 79.6 80.1 80.8 81.6 82.7 84.0 85.5 87.1 88.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 0 1 1 1 2 3 3 4 6 7 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 33 34 33 33 31 31 36 40 16 8 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 26. 29. 32. 34. 35. 36. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 3. -3. -14. -18. -18. -17. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 14. 22. 32. 42. 44. 38. 30. 27. 32. 34. 36. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.5 79.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162016 SIXTEEN 11/21/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 25.9 to 2.2 0.36 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.23 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.50 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.42 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 126.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.78 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.76 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.57 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 95.0 to 0.0 0.98 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 14.5% 9.5% 6.2% 3.2% 7.7% 9.1% 13.5% Logistic: 5.3% 27.0% 16.9% 8.2% 3.0% 10.5% 10.8% 15.0% Bayesian: 1.3% 3.0% 5.1% 0.4% 0.1% 1.3% 8.0% 0.2% Consensus: 3.8% 14.8% 10.5% 4.9% 2.1% 6.5% 9.3% 9.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162016 SIXTEEN 11/21/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162016 SIXTEEN 11/21/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 36 38 44 52 62 72 62 39 35 33 37 39 42 42 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 35 41 49 59 69 59 36 32 30 34 36 39 39 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 36 44 54 64 54 31 27 25 29 31 34 34 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 28 36 46 56 46 23 19 17 21 23 26 26 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT