* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEYMOUR EP202016 10/27/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 48 37 29 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 48 37 29 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 49 40 33 28 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 34 44 43 42 39 43 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 3 -3 -6 -2 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 231 235 241 249 252 265 261 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.8 24.3 23.7 23.4 23.1 22.4 21.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 111 105 99 96 92 85 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 -54.7 -55.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 2 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 45 40 36 32 26 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 14 12 10 8 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -40 -12 0 -10 -9 -19 -39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 26 26 16 -7 -6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 9 14 18 6 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1115 1043 973 889 806 654 515 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.7 22.5 23.2 23.9 25.2 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 123.0 122.9 122.7 122.3 121.8 120.9 120.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 760 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -14. -17. -19. -21. -24. -28. -31. -35. -37. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -9. -13. -17. -24. -32. -40. -47. -51. -54. -57. -60. -65. -67. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -10. -10. -8. -6. -5. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -14. -18. -20. -20. -20. -19. -17. -16. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -12. -23. -31. -37. -47. -60. -72. -83. -94.-102.-109.-115.-121.-127.-134.-141. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 20.9 123.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/27/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.10 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.28 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 494.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.30 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.0 to -2.0 0.28 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/27/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##