* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEYMOUR EP202016 10/27/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 85 72 59 47 29 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 85 72 59 47 29 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 87 75 64 54 39 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 24 26 29 34 43 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 12 13 10 -4 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 228 232 240 232 232 249 256 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.6 26.0 25.2 24.7 24.3 23.4 22.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 123 115 109 105 95 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -54.3 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 4 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 51 52 49 45 37 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 18 17 16 13 10 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -40 -60 -48 -30 -9 -5 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 52 64 48 42 21 -2 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 3 3 4 3 12 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1193 1182 1163 1098 1039 883 745 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.2 19.1 19.9 20.8 21.6 23.1 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 121.4 122.0 122.5 122.6 122.7 122.1 121.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -11. -20. -29. -36. -43. -48. -53. -57. -59. -62. -65. -68. -72. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -15. -23. -26. -25. -25. -26. -28. -31. -35. -38. -40. -39. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -7. -9. -10. -9. -6. -3. -0. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -14. -18. -21. -21. -21. -20. -18. -16. -15. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -15. -28. -41. -53. -71. -83. -89. -94. -99.-104.-108.-111.-115.-119.-121.-123. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 18.2 121.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/27/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 752.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.32 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/27/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##