* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEYMOUR EP202016 10/25/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 110 112 112 110 97 84 70 53 41 28 25 22 19 17 15 N/A V (KT) LAND 105 110 112 112 110 97 84 70 53 41 28 25 22 19 17 15 N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 110 111 108 105 92 74 56 41 30 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 2 5 6 9 17 19 28 36 35 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 2 2 -1 5 12 12 1 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 126 136 183 180 208 214 225 226 252 252 259 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.6 28.2 27.9 28.2 26.6 25.9 24.9 24.5 24.4 24.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 151 147 144 147 129 121 110 104 103 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.3 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -53.6 -53.4 -54.1 -54.4 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 64 64 65 64 60 57 50 43 36 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 18 20 21 19 19 17 12 10 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -17 -9 -12 -16 -28 -53 -12 -14 -11 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 60 78 70 69 61 82 47 9 -22 -31 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -1 -2 0 1 0 5 5 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 943 987 1046 1101 1135 1167 1158 1102 1049 1017 978 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.8 16.1 16.5 16.8 17.9 19.1 20.3 21.1 21.5 22.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.4 115.7 116.9 118.0 119.1 120.8 121.7 122.1 122.3 122.3 122.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 11 11 8 7 5 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 23 23 24 23 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -7. -16. -25. -33. -40. -46. -50. -51. -53. -55. -58. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. -14. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 2. 0. 0. -2. -9. -12. -16. -15. -14. -13. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 7. 7. 5. -8. -21. -35. -52. -64. -77. -80. -83. -86. -88. -90. -91. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 15.5 114.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/25/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.13 1.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.67 6.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.80 5.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.56 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 534.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.25 -1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.24 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.75 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.22 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.0 to -2.0 0.28 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 35.7% 28.4% 24.0% 23.9% 17.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 41.9% 23.2% 27.9% 27.3% 9.8% 7.2% 1.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 55.4% 24.0% 7.5% 5.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 44.3% 25.2% 19.8% 19.0% 9.3% 2.4% 0.4% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/25/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##