* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEYMOUR EP202016 10/25/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 100 104 106 106 104 93 79 62 45 30 26 22 19 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 95 100 104 106 106 104 93 79 62 45 30 26 22 19 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 95 100 102 101 99 91 78 62 46 34 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 3 3 6 6 12 19 26 40 40 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 4 2 1 0 6 12 4 -3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 359 218 201 191 203 216 224 215 232 253 258 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.5 28.0 28.0 27.1 26.0 24.8 24.4 24.0 23.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 150 145 145 135 123 109 104 99 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -54.4 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 62 64 66 65 64 59 56 47 38 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 18 19 18 21 20 17 14 11 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -12 -15 -7 -15 -22 -51 -39 -2 -16 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 64 68 70 69 64 79 81 49 -2 -27 -29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -2 -1 -2 1 3 6 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 892 929 985 1040 1095 1144 1155 1105 1046 994 943 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.4 16.7 17.7 19.0 20.5 21.5 22.1 22.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.3 114.6 115.9 117.1 118.3 120.3 121.6 122.4 122.7 122.6 122.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 11 10 8 7 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 22 23 21 23 6 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -3. -10. -18. -25. -31. -36. -39. -41. -42. -44. -47. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -11. -13. -14. -16. -17. -16. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 3. 3. 1. -3. -9. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 11. 11. 9. -2. -16. -33. -50. -65. -69. -73. -76. -79. -82. -84. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 15.5 113.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/25/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.23 3.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.58 7.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.85 8.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.55 5.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 476.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.33 -3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.40 3.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.79 5.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.21 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.47 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 42% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 42.2% 37.4% 35.8% 29.0% 24.4% 19.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 46.9% 34.9% 37.9% 36.5% 9.8% 13.7% 1.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 42.4% 50.2% 31.7% 24.2% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 43.8% 40.8% 35.2% 29.9% 12.0% 11.1% 0.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/25/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##