* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/18/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 50 52 53 47 30 25 21 20 20 19 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 52 50 52 53 47 30 25 21 20 20 19 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 52 51 51 50 45 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 13 21 29 26 12 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 8 17 18 6 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 247 180 194 190 156 198 201 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 17.0 15.4 10.8 8.4 7.5 7.9 8.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 77 75 70 69 69 69 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 72 72 69 68 68 67 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.8 -54.9 -53.5 -52.0 -51.3 -48.9 -47.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.9 4.3 4.2 2.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 52 58 53 38 45 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 36 35 35 40 41 37 26 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 208 274 289 294 320 291 387 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 58 56 41 42 36 -109 -237 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 15 -12 33 1 -68 -22 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1022 1073 1177 1295 1370 1481 1305 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 45.5 48.2 50.9 53.6 56.2 61.5 66.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 39.8 38.4 37.0 36.1 35.2 33.5 31.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 26 29 28 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 23 CX,CY: 13/ 19 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 774 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -9. -12. -14. -18. -21. -25. -27. -30. -33. -36. -38. -39. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -13. -16. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. -0. -4. -10. -14. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 2. 3. -0. -12. -15. -17. -18. -19. -20. -21. -20. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 16. 17. 19. 20. 21. 24. 25. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -3. -2. -8. -25. -30. -34. -35. -35. -35. -37. -41. -44. -45. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 45.5 39.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/18/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.47 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 25.9 to 2.2 0.30 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 33.3 to 3.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.6 to -2.7 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 167.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.74 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.6 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.37 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 99.0 95.0 to 0.0 0.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/18/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/18/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 52 50 52 53 47 30 25 21 20 20 19 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 52 54 55 49 32 27 23 22 22 21 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 53 54 48 31 26 22 21 21 20 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 46 40 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT