* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/14/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 81 73 65 61 56 57 57 55 59 58 58 58 51 40 29 19 V (KT) LAND 90 81 73 65 61 56 57 57 55 59 58 58 58 51 40 29 19 V (KT) LGEM 90 81 74 69 66 62 57 51 50 56 61 60 56 50 43 39 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 44 42 45 47 50 50 32 19 13 5 12 14 24 36 13 18 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 11 6 5 7 0 -4 -1 -1 -2 -3 1 8 2 2 5 5 SHEAR DIR 246 244 240 235 235 230 229 236 247 196 184 154 218 234 261 319 314 SST (C) 26.8 26.1 25.5 25.7 25.8 25.1 24.4 24.2 24.5 24.5 23.4 21.0 18.8 16.5 14.7 12.7 10.7 POT. INT. (KT) 125 117 112 113 114 106 99 96 99 99 94 83 77 73 71 69 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 110 103 98 99 99 90 82 80 81 83 80 74 70 68 67 66 65 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.7 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -53.4 -52.9 -54.9 -55.7 -56.5 -55.9 -55.8 -55.5 -54.6 -54.6 -55.2 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.3 2.4 1.8 1.3 0.5 0.6 0.3 1.0 1.3 0.7 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 2 2 2 2 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 44 44 43 44 43 44 47 55 53 55 54 44 32 21 32 50 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 37 38 38 41 47 52 51 47 47 44 43 44 41 33 26 21 850 MB ENV VOR 54 65 77 90 89 152 179 176 169 166 180 188 205 201 95 28 -23 200 MB DIV 72 45 51 53 60 87 20 27 1 28 43 39 9 0 5 14 30 700-850 TADV 6 -9 -17 -17 -15 -14 -10 1 -1 0 1 13 14 -17 3 18 59 LAND (KM) 1096 1059 1049 1049 1047 940 916 925 938 949 965 1018 1121 1260 1455 1369 1066 LAT (DEG N) 34.0 34.9 35.7 36.4 37.1 38.3 38.8 39.0 39.2 39.5 40.3 41.5 43.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.1 60.4 58.6 56.7 54.8 51.7 49.9 48.8 47.8 46.8 45.0 42.6 39.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 17 17 15 10 6 4 4 6 9 12 14 16 17 18 17 HEAT CONTENT 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 18 CX,CY: 15/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -12. -19. -29. -37. -45. -51. -56. -61. -66. -69. -71. -72. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -12. -18. -23. -32. -34. -31. -27. -21. -16. -14. -14. -15. -14. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 9. 15. 16. 11. 11. 7. 4. 4. 0. -10. -19. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -9. -17. -24. -29. -34. -33. -33. -35. -31. -32. -32. -32. -39. -50. -61. -71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 34.0 62.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/14/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 45.8 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 33.3 to 3.1 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.54 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.6 to -2.7 0.68 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 586.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.26 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 12.0 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.42 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 50.0 95.0 to 0.0 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/14/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/14/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 4( 16) 0( 16) 0( 16) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 81 73 65 61 56 57 57 55 59 58 58 58 51 40 29 19 18HR AGO 90 89 81 73 69 64 65 65 63 67 66 66 66 59 48 37 27 12HR AGO 90 87 86 78 74 69 70 70 68 72 71 71 71 64 53 42 32 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 76 71 72 72 70 74 73 73 73 66 55 44 34 NOW 90 81 75 72 71 66 67 67 65 69 68 68 68 61 50 39 29 IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT