* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/11/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 54 57 60 67 73 77 79 82 88 87 81 76 72 66 67 V (KT) LAND 50 51 54 57 60 67 73 77 79 82 88 87 81 76 72 66 67 V (KT) LGEM 50 51 52 54 57 65 72 74 73 70 66 57 50 47 48 51 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SUBT SUBT SUBT SHEAR (KT) 11 9 6 1 7 14 21 34 50 44 39 26 11 5 3 7 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 0 -2 3 2 1 3 0 -2 -2 0 2 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 33 357 355 201 222 221 217 231 229 228 220 196 201 256 249 269 307 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.6 28.0 28.2 28.6 27.7 27.2 26.8 26.4 25.0 24.2 23.6 23.7 23.7 23.4 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 129 128 129 134 137 144 132 127 124 120 106 99 91 91 91 90 88 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 109 109 113 115 122 114 110 108 104 91 83 75 74 74 74 73 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -51.9 -51.8 -51.7 -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -53.2 -55.6 -56.5 -57.2 -56.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.7 1.1 1.9 3.3 1.6 1.8 0.9 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 60 59 57 54 51 50 49 45 46 44 45 52 55 56 59 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 24 24 25 28 31 33 38 43 50 53 51 48 47 45 46 850 MB ENV VOR 94 85 89 91 91 84 69 53 61 90 154 176 169 170 151 143 134 200 MB DIV 33 31 27 26 36 51 91 53 77 95 76 62 12 2 -21 27 49 700-850 TADV 3 1 3 5 5 6 12 15 6 -10 -5 2 -4 8 7 5 -1 LAND (KM) 889 915 943 969 995 1097 1065 1065 1011 869 740 633 547 569 568 523 478 LAT (DEG N) 26.6 27.0 27.4 27.8 28.1 29.1 30.6 32.5 34.6 37.0 39.2 41.1 41.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.5 65.8 66.0 66.3 66.5 66.6 66.0 64.8 62.7 59.8 57.3 55.3 54.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 4 4 7 9 12 15 16 14 9 2 1 1 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 24 21 23 26 27 25 10 11 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 0. -3. -6. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. -2. -8. -12. -15. -16. -16. -16. -15. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. 1. 2. 6. 9. 14. 22. 31. 35. 31. 25. 21. 16. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 10. 17. 23. 27. 29. 32. 38. 37. 31. 26. 22. 16. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 26.6 65.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/11/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 25.9 to 2.2 0.80 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.16 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 33.3 to 3.1 0.65 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.26 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 220.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.68 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.4 30.0 to 128.0 0.32 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.29 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 17.6% 12.0% 9.2% 5.9% 10.3% 11.7% 0.0% Logistic: 4.2% 21.6% 12.3% 8.4% 5.1% 10.2% 5.4% 1.6% Bayesian: 1.3% 2.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 13.9% 8.2% 5.9% 3.7% 6.9% 5.7% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/11/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/11/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 51 54 57 60 67 73 77 79 82 88 87 81 76 72 66 67 18HR AGO 50 49 52 55 58 65 71 75 77 80 86 85 79 74 70 64 65 12HR AGO 50 47 46 49 52 59 65 69 71 74 80 79 73 68 64 58 59 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 43 50 56 60 62 65 71 70 64 59 55 49 50 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT