* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/10/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 55 55 56 61 67 75 80 84 86 92 93 86 75 65 57 V (KT) LAND 55 54 55 55 56 61 67 75 80 84 86 92 93 86 75 65 57 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 54 54 54 56 62 71 79 82 81 78 70 59 49 44 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 27 27 20 11 10 3 10 6 17 28 40 48 49 35 20 23 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 0 -2 -1 -3 0 2 4 4 6 2 0 -1 -6 5 SHEAR DIR 10 20 33 34 7 15 248 218 233 235 242 226 220 214 213 210 280 SST (C) 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.9 28.3 28.4 27.4 26.7 26.4 26.1 23.8 22.0 22.5 20.4 POT. INT. (KT) 146 141 138 135 131 128 132 138 142 130 123 120 117 98 89 91 82 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 121 118 115 111 108 111 117 122 113 108 104 100 86 79 80 74 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -51.9 -51.8 -51.6 -51.1 -51.1 -51.4 -53.1 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.4 2.4 1.8 1.1 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 6 5 3 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 60 59 59 59 59 59 56 56 56 61 58 52 42 47 52 55 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 23 23 23 25 27 29 31 35 39 48 54 55 51 45 41 850 MB ENV VOR 60 57 73 91 76 89 81 80 70 62 77 130 192 230 230 133 -69 200 MB DIV 7 18 42 29 25 52 30 78 70 82 88 113 52 54 32 56 21 700-850 TADV 10 9 6 1 1 2 5 8 16 19 14 -16 -8 1 2 5 6 LAND (KM) 705 754 803 844 874 913 961 1033 1154 1151 1132 993 946 890 812 832 965 LAT (DEG N) 24.8 25.3 25.7 26.1 26.5 27.1 27.7 28.4 29.6 31.4 33.5 35.9 37.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.2 65.3 65.3 65.5 65.6 66.0 66.3 66.3 65.7 64.4 62.3 59.4 56.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 4 4 3 4 5 9 12 15 16 15 15 15 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 38 34 32 30 25 23 26 25 19 16 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. -2. -4. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 2. -3. -8. -14. -18. -20. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 18. 29. 36. 34. 27. 18. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 20. 25. 29. 31. 37. 38. 31. 20. 10. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 24.8 65.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/10/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 25.9 to 2.2 0.29 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.22 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.19 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.84 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.06 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 226.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.67 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.34 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.26 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 95.0 to 0.0 0.95 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 11.2% 7.9% 6.3% 3.0% 7.9% 8.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.7% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 1.6% 4.8% 3.4% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 4.4% 2.9% 2.3% 1.1% 3.2% 4.6% 1.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/10/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/10/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 54 55 55 56 61 67 75 80 84 86 92 93 86 75 65 57 18HR AGO 55 54 55 55 56 61 67 75 80 84 86 92 93 86 75 65 57 12HR AGO 55 52 51 51 52 57 63 71 76 80 82 88 89 82 71 61 53 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 46 51 57 65 70 74 76 82 83 76 65 55 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT