* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/09/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 46 45 44 46 52 58 65 68 73 75 74 70 69 62 V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 46 45 44 46 52 58 65 68 73 75 74 70 69 62 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 44 43 42 39 39 40 44 49 54 58 60 58 53 48 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 33 33 28 28 27 21 12 5 13 19 29 35 49 48 51 44 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 6 7 3 2 4 4 3 0 -2 -2 2 2 6 -1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 4 7 17 15 16 44 8 26 242 225 231 226 237 224 214 205 207 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.1 28.4 28.1 28.1 28.3 27.3 26.9 26.7 26.4 24.1 23.7 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 155 157 156 151 140 136 136 140 128 124 123 120 101 98 93 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 130 131 134 134 129 119 115 115 119 110 109 107 104 88 85 81 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.0 2.1 2.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 7 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 3 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 53 54 59 61 60 60 57 53 49 50 47 48 45 49 50 57 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 20 21 21 20 21 23 24 26 29 33 37 43 46 49 48 850 MB ENV VOR 22 6 18 54 65 81 76 83 66 65 50 52 59 84 137 217 265 200 MB DIV 16 32 48 23 7 37 24 30 43 60 52 88 52 80 42 56 82 700-850 TADV 5 6 8 6 6 11 2 4 7 8 10 5 4 -22 -44 -35 -21 LAND (KM) 645 640 634 667 701 794 879 941 1054 1118 1114 1140 1049 996 889 770 776 LAT (DEG N) 24.3 24.3 24.2 24.5 24.8 25.7 26.7 27.5 28.6 29.8 31.3 33.1 35.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.7 65.7 65.7 65.7 65.7 65.7 65.9 66.3 66.3 66.0 64.9 62.9 60.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 0 1 3 4 5 5 5 6 7 11 14 16 16 16 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 48 48 49 46 44 41 34 31 24 19 15 6 6 4 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 14. 13. 11. 9. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -8. -12. -17. -24. -30. -34. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 0. -1. -1. 1. 1. 4. 7. 11. 17. 22. 24. 27. 23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 1. 0. -1. 1. 7. 13. 20. 23. 28. 30. 29. 25. 24. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 24.3 65.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/09/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.1 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.32 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.40 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.90 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 204.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.69 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.58 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.27 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 58.3 95.0 to 0.0 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 12.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.7% Logistic: 4.5% 3.5% 2.9% 1.1% 0.4% 1.1% 1.3% 1.3% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% Consensus: 3.5% 5.5% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.6% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/09/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/09/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 45 46 45 44 46 52 58 65 68 73 75 74 70 69 62 18HR AGO 45 44 44 45 44 43 45 51 57 64 67 72 74 73 69 68 61 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 41 40 42 48 54 61 64 69 71 70 66 65 58 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 33 35 41 47 54 57 62 64 63 59 58 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT